Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BAL · 2026

Suárez, Albert

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
17.4% K%
Range
13.3% to 24.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team BAL Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 37 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-16
28
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
28
Arsenal5 metrics
40
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-16
ERA preseason4.10
ERA current pace4.05
ERA rolling p504.08
Observed weight39%
ERA
2.97 3.50 4.08 4.66 5.19
FIP
4.11 4.43 4.79 5.15 5.48
K%
13.6% 15.3% 17.3% 19.2% 21.0%
BB%
6.3% 7.2% 8.2% 9.1% 10.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.46
26
ERA4.05
46
BB%9.3%
44 -16 vs proj
K%15.9%
9
xwOBA allowed0.351
16 -24 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.7%
19 -32 vs proj
Fastball velo93.3
31
Hard-hit allowed42.9%
28
Whiff%21.4%
37 +16 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-16
Changeup Stuff+111
96
Curveball Stuff+102
43
Cutter Stuff+95
5
Fastball Stuff+99
27
Mithrandir Stuff+99
29
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 53%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Suárez, Albert · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.351 2026-06-05: 0.3532026-06-06: 0.3532026-06-07: 0.3532026-06-08: 0.3382026-06-09: 0.3382026-06-10: 0.3352026-06-11: 0.3352026-06-12: 0.3352026-06-13: 0.3352026-06-14: 0.3352026-06-15: 0.3512026-06-16: 0.351 2026-06-05 2026-06-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Suárez, Albert · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 45%45%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Suárez, Albert · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 52.8%Cutter: 21.2%Changeup: 18.3%Curveball: 7.2%Slurve: 0.5% FF53% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 53%FC 21%CH 18%CU 7%SV 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Suárez, Albert · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 53% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 93.3 mphFF93 mphCutter: 21% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 85.2 mphFC85 mphChangeup: 18% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 84.7 mphCH85 mphCurveball: 7% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 77.7 mphCU78 mphSlurve: 1% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 81.4 mphSV81 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 52.7% 158 99 limited sample
FC 20.0% 60 95 limited sample
CH 18.7% 56 111 limited sample
CB 8.3% 25 102 limited sample
SL 0.3% 1 68 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 41%, Cutter 21%, Changeup 14%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.48
K% Δ-0.015
Sample33.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings68.2----
Batters Faced290----
K%17.4%13.3% to 24.3%+/- 5.5%
BB%8.0%5.5% to 10.2%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%19.3%16.9% to 26.3%+/- 4.7%
HR/91.260.81 to 1.84+/- 0.52
xwOBA Against0.3250.285 to 0.360+/- 0.037
Barrel% Allowed7.6%5.0% to 9.7%+/- 2.3%
ERA4.532.79 to 5.85+/- 1.53
FIP4.523.60 to 5.49+/- 0.94
WHIP1.3971.134 to 1.689+/- 0.278
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

551 career BF

xwOBA0.301
K%15.4%
BB%8.4%
Barrel6.2%
vs RHH

625 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%17.4%
BB%5.9%
Barrel6.4%