Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BOS · 2026

Gray, Sonny

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
22.5% K%
Range
20.3% to 30.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team BOS Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 37 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.06
ERA current pace3.27
ERA rolling p503.66
Observed weight51%
ERA
2.63 3.12 3.66 4.20 4.69
FIP
2.85 3.21 3.62 4.02 4.38
K%
19.8% 21.2% 22.9% 24.5% 26.0%
BB%
5.3% 6.0% 6.7% 7.5% 8.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%7.3%
70
Barrel allowed8.5%
39
Fastball velo92.0
18
Hard-hit allowed34.1%
80
K%21.5%
44
Whiff%20.8%
30 -24 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.329
39
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+103
60
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 21%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Gray, Sonny · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3552026-05-19: 0.3552026-05-21: 0.3322026-05-23: 0.3322026-05-24: 0.3322026-05-25: 0.3302026-05-26: 0.3302026-05-28: 0.3302026-05-29: 0.3302026-05-30: 0.3302026-05-31: 0.3302026-06-01: 0.329 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Gray, Sonny · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gray, Sonny · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 21.4%Curveball: 19.1%Sinker: 18.6%4-Seam Fastball: 18.4%Sweeper: 17.0%Changeup: 4.9% MIX FC 21%CU 19%SI 19%FF 18%ST 17%CH 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gray, Sonny · 2026 arsenal snapshot FC: HB -0.0, IVB 2.5FCCU: HB 0.8, IVB 4.9CUSI: HB 0.4, IVB 2.1SIFF: HB 0.0, IVB 1.7FFST: HB -0.1, IVB 3.6STCH: HB -1.1, IVB 2.8CHSL: HB -0.5, IVB 2.6SLCS: HB 0.9, IVB 5.7CS horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 24.5% 170 104 limited sample
CB 19.3% 134 100 limited sample
SI 17.7% 123 103 limited sample
FB 17.2% 119 105 limited sample
SL 17.0% 118 102 limited sample
CH 4.2% 29 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 22%, Sweeper 19%, Curveball 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.76
K% Δ-0.009
Sample57.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings145.4----
Batters Faced613----
K%22.5%20.3% to 30.9%+/- 5.3%
BB%6.1%4.5% to 8.2%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%23.4%20.8% to 29.7%+/- 4.5%
HR/91.470.93 to 2.08+/- 0.57
xwOBA Against0.3330.285 to 0.357+/- 0.036
Barrel% Allowed8.5%5.8% to 12.6%+/- 3.4%
ERA4.032.85 to 5.77+/- 1.46
FIP3.982.74 to 4.90+/- 1.08
WHIP1.2851.064 to 1.514+/- 0.225
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

3364 career BF

xwOBA0.293
K%24.8%
BB%5.9%
Barrel9.2%
vs RHH

3624 career BF

xwOBA0.290
K%24.1%
BB%5.1%
Barrel9.9%