Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BOS · 2026

Gray, Sonny

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
22.5% K%
Range
20.3% to 30.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team BOS Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 37 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
73
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
59
Arsenal7 metrics
57
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason4.06
ERA current pace2.54
ERA rolling p503.09
Observed weight64%
ERA
2.02 2.53 3.09 3.66 4.16
FIP
2.83 3.21 3.63 4.04 4.42
K%
20.9% 22.1% 23.4% 24.8% 26.0%
BB%
5.2% 5.8% 6.4% 7.1% 7.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.14
76
ERA2.54
87
BB%6.6%
81
K%22.9%
54
xwOBA allowed0.296
68 +38 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.0%
61 +23 vs proj
Fastball velo92.0
16
Hard-hit allowed36.9%
63
Whiff%20.4%
29 -25 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Mithrandir Stuff+104
64
Changeup Stuff+101
41
Curveball Stuff+101
29
Cutter Stuff+105
81
Fastball Stuff+105
70
Sinker Stuff+103
57
Slider Stuff+103
54
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 20%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Gray, Sonny · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.296 2026-07-05: 0.2962026-07-06: 0.2982026-07-07: 0.2982026-07-08: 0.2982026-07-09: 0.2982026-07-10: 0.2982026-07-11: 0.2982026-07-12: 0.2962026-07-13: 0.2962026-07-14: 0.2962026-07-15: 0.2962026-07-16: 0.296 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Gray, Sonny · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gray, Sonny · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 20.4%Cutter: 19.8%Sweeper: 19.3%4-Seam Fastball: 18.5%Curveball: 16.8%Changeup: 4.9% SI20% · 92 mphprimary pitch SI 20%FC 20%ST 19%FF 19%CU 17%CH 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gray, Sonny · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ Sinker: 20% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 92.2 mphSI92 mphCutter: 20% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 88.4 mphFC88 mphSweeper: 19% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 85.0 mphST85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 19% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 91.8 mphFF92 mphCurveball: 17% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 58″ drop, 79.8 mphCU80 mphChangeup: 5% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 86.2 mphCH86 mphSlider: 0% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 85.2 mphSL85 mphSlow Curve: 0% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 65″ drop, 74.1 mphCS74 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 23.0% 198 105 limited sample
FB 19.2% 165 105 limited sample
CB 18.4% 158 101 limited sample
SI 17.4% 150 103 limited sample
SL 17.3% 149 103 limited sample
CH 4.8% 41 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 22%, Sweeper 19%, Curveball 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.49
K% Δ+0.004
Sample102.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings146.7----
Batters Faced618----
K%22.5%20.3% to 30.9%+/- 5.3%
BB%6.1%4.5% to 8.2%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%23.4%20.8% to 29.7%+/- 4.5%
HR/91.470.93 to 2.08+/- 0.57
xwOBA Against0.3330.285 to 0.357+/- 0.036
Barrel% Allowed8.5%5.8% to 12.6%+/- 3.4%
ERA4.032.85 to 5.77+/- 1.46
FIP3.982.74 to 4.90+/- 1.08
WHIP1.2851.064 to 1.514+/- 0.225
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

3364 career BF

xwOBA0.293
K%24.8%
BB%5.9%
Barrel9.2%
vs RHH

3624 career BF

xwOBA0.290
K%24.1%
BB%5.1%
Barrel9.9%