Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TEX · 2026

Eovaldi, Nathan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.4% K%
Range
18.1% to 28.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team TEX Archetype Balanced starter Age 36 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
67
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
62
Arsenal5 metrics
59
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.44
ERA current pace4.04
ERA rolling p503.84
Observed weight67%
ERA
2.76 3.27 3.84 4.41 4.93
FIP
3.24 3.52 3.84 4.15 4.43
K%
21.8% 22.9% 24.2% 25.4% 26.6%
BB%
4.4% 5.0% 5.5% 6.1% 6.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.19
71
ERA4.04
49
BB%5.6%
91
K%25.1%
68 +26 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.308
56
Barrel allowed7.7%
49
Fastball velo94.3
48
Hard-hit allowed40.1%
42
Whiff%28.7%
88 +40 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Curveball Stuff+100
20
Cutter Stuff+102
52
Mithrandir Stuff+105
76
Fastball Stuff+107
83
Sinker Stuff+103
62
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 36%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Eovaldi, Nathan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.308 2026-07-06: 0.3112026-07-07: 0.3112026-07-08: 0.3112026-07-09: 0.3112026-07-10: 0.3112026-07-11: 0.3082026-07-12: 0.3082026-07-13: 0.3082026-07-14: 0.3082026-07-15: 0.3082026-07-16: 0.3082026-07-17: 0.308 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Eovaldi, Nathan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Eovaldi, Nathan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Split-Finger: 36.4%Curveball: 22.1%Cutter: 20.0%4-Seam Fastball: 13.0%Sinker: 7.9%Slider: 0.5% FS36% · 89 mphprimary pitch FS 36%CU 22%FC 20%FF 13%SI 8%SL 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Eovaldi, Nathan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Split-Finger: 36% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 88.6 mphFS89 mphCurveball: 22% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 76.5 mphCU76 mphCutter: 20% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 90.6 mphFC91 mph4-Seam Fastball: 13% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 94.7 mphFF95 mphSinker: 8% usage, 16″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 93.6 mphSI94 mphSlider: 1% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 86.1 mphSL86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 35.0% 219 102 qualified
CB 32.8% 205 100 qualified
FB 18.6% 116 107 limited sample
SI 12.5% 78 103 limited sample
SL 1.1% 7 93 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Split-Finger 31%, 4-Seam Fastball 23%, Cutter 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.45
K% Δ+0.036
Sample114.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings143.9----
Batters Faced574----
K%21.4%18.1% to 28.4%+/- 5.1%
BB%5.9%4.2% to 8.0%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%22.7%20.1% to 27.8%+/- 3.8%
HR/91.200.86 to 1.87+/- 0.51
xwOBA Against0.3030.273 to 0.324+/- 0.026
Barrel% Allowed8.6%6.2% to 11.7%+/- 2.7%
ERA3.592.02 to 4.94+/- 1.46
FIP3.703.01 to 4.61+/- 0.80
WHIP1.0860.854 to 1.387+/- 0.266
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2648 career BF

xwOBA0.288
K%21.2%
BB%5.6%
Barrel9.0%
vs RHH

3004 career BF

xwOBA0.271
K%23.0%
BB%5.4%
Barrel8.1%