Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TEX · 2026

Eovaldi, Nathan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.4% K%
Range
18.1% to 28.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team TEX Archetype Balanced starter Age 36 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
63
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
56
Arsenal6 metrics
60
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.44
ERA current pace4.07
ERA rolling p503.89
Observed weight72%
ERA
2.77 3.30 3.89 4.49 5.02
FIP
3.35 3.64 3.96 4.29 4.58
K%
20.8% 21.8% 22.9% 24.0% 25.0%
BB%
4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.22
69
ERA4.07
50
BB%5.6%
93
K%23.1%
58
xwOBA allowed0.319
43 -20 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.3%
37
Fastball velo94.1
45
Hard-hit allowed41.5%
29
Whiff%27.3%
83 +33 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Curveball Stuff+100
19
Cutter Stuff+102
55
Mithrandir Stuff+104
70
Fastball Stuff+106
80
Sinker Stuff+105
70
Slider Stuff+104
68
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Eovaldi, Nathan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.319 2026-09-12: 0.3162026-09-13: 0.3152026-09-14: 0.3152026-09-18: 0.3152026-09-19: 0.3152026-09-20: 0.3152026-09-21: 0.3162026-09-22: 0.3162026-09-23: 0.3192026-09-24: 0.3192026-09-25: 0.3192026-09-26: 0.319 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Eovaldi, Nathan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Eovaldi, Nathan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Split-Finger: 37.1%Curveball: 22.2%Cutter: 18.9%4-Seam Fastball: 14.0%Sinker: 7.1%Slider: 0.8% FS37% · 88 mphprimary pitch FS 37%CU 22%FC 19%FF 14%SI 7%SL 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Eovaldi, Nathan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Split-Finger: 37% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 88.4 mphFS88 mphCurveball: 22% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 76.3 mphCU76 mphCutter: 19% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 90.3 mphFC90 mph4-Seam Fastball: 14% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 94.4 mphFF94 mphSinker: 7% usage, 16″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 93.5 mphSI94 mphSlider: 1% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 86.5 mphSL86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CB 33.5% 264 100 qualified
FC 33.4% 263 102 qualified
FB 20.6% 162 106 limited sample
SI 11.3% 89 105 limited sample
SL 1.3% 10 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Split-Finger 31%, 4-Seam Fastball 23%, Cutter 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.48
K% Δ+0.017
Sample144.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings142.7----
Batters Faced570----
K%21.4%18.1% to 28.4%+/- 5.1%
BB%5.9%4.2% to 8.0%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%22.7%20.1% to 27.8%+/- 3.8%
HR/91.200.86 to 1.87+/- 0.51
xwOBA Against0.3030.273 to 0.324+/- 0.026
Barrel% Allowed8.6%6.2% to 11.7%+/- 2.7%
ERA3.592.02 to 4.94+/- 1.46
FIP3.703.01 to 4.61+/- 0.80
WHIP1.0860.854 to 1.387+/- 0.266
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2648 career BF

xwOBA0.288
K%21.2%
BB%5.6%
Barrel9.0%
vs RHH

3004 career BF

xwOBA0.271
K%23.0%
BB%5.4%
Barrel8.1%