Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATL · 2026

Pérez, Martín

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
16.6% K%
Range
13.3% to 22.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATL Archetype Volatile contact Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-18
57
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
48
Arsenal6 metrics
29
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-18
ERA preseason4.43
ERA current pace3.02
ERA rolling p503.69
Observed weight52%
ERA
2.46 3.04 3.69 4.34 4.93
FIP
3.40 3.77 4.18 4.59 4.96
K%
15.6% 16.9% 18.4% 19.8% 21.1%
BB%
6.2% 7.0% 7.9% 8.8% 9.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.10
78
ERA3.02
71
BB%8.3%
56
K%19.7%
30 +19 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.314
51 +33 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.0%
57 +22 vs proj
Fastball velo89.8
3
Hard-hit allowed37.6%
61
Whiff%20.0%
26
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-18
Changeup Stuff+99
26
Mithrandir Stuff+97
19
Sinker Stuff+96
14
Curveball Stuff+103
71
Cutter Stuff+101
43
Fastball Stuff+89
3
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 32%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Pérez, Martín · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.314 2026-06-07: 0.3172026-06-08: 0.3172026-06-09: 0.3172026-06-10: 0.3172026-06-11: 0.3172026-06-12: 0.3172026-06-13: 0.3172026-06-14: 0.3172026-06-15: 0.3142026-06-16: 0.3142026-06-17: 0.3142026-06-18: 0.314 2026-06-07 2026-06-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Pérez, Martín · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Pérez, Martín · 2026 arsenal snapshot Changeup: 32.4%Sinker: 30.4%Cutter: 21.8%Curveball: 9.1%4-Seam Fastball: 6.4% CH32% · 82 mphprimary pitch CH 32%SI 30%FC 22%CU 9%FF 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Pérez, Martín · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Changeup: 32% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 82.4 mphCH82 mphSinker: 30% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 89.7 mphSI90 mphCutter: 22% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 85.8 mphFC86 mphCurveball: 9% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 49″ drop, 77.2 mphCU77 mph4-Seam Fastball: 6% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 90.2 mphFF90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CH 33.1% 266 99 qualified
SI 29.0% 233 96 qualified
FC 21.4% 172 101 limited sample
CB 10.0% 80 103 limited sample
FB 6.6% 53 89 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.279 vs 0.323 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 31%, Changeup 29%, Cutter 28%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.38
K% Δ+0.031
Sample65.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings72.2----
Batters Faced312----
K%16.6%13.3% to 22.6%+/- 4.6%
BB%8.2%5.4% to 10.6%+/- 2.6%
Whiff%18.2%15.1% to 22.6%+/- 3.8%
HR/91.510.82 to 2.01+/- 0.60
xwOBA Against0.3490.291 to 0.373+/- 0.041
Barrel% Allowed8.8%7.0% to 12.5%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.402.41 to 5.90+/- 1.75
FIP4.573.27 to 5.48+/- 1.11
WHIP1.3761.044 to 1.646+/- 0.301
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1303 career BF

xwOBA0.279
K%18.6%
BB%6.0%
Barrel7.5%
vs RHH

5111 career BF

xwOBA0.323
K%16.2%
BB%8.2%
Barrel9.7%