Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 47%, 4-Seam Fastball 42%, Changeup 8%.
Pitcher projection / ATL · 2026
Sale, Chris
Breaking-ball driven starter profile
Team ATL
Archetype Breaking-ball attack
Age 37
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
84
Pitching
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.36 |
| ERA current pace | 2.20 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 2.60 |
| Observed weight | 65% |
ERA
1.68
2.12
2.60
3.09
3.53
FIP
2.47
2.67
2.89
3.11
3.30
K%
25.4%
26.7%
28.1%
29.5%
30.8%
BB%
4.7%
5.2%
5.9%
6.5%
7.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.07
84
ERA2.20
94
BB%5.8%
89
K%27.6%
82
xwOBA allowed0.289
73
Barrel allowed6.2%
73
+26 vs proj
Fastball velo95.7
71
Hard-hit allowed33.7%
84
Whiff%27.1%
79
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Fastball Stuff+106
80
Mithrandir Stuff+106
84
Slider Stuff+103
55
Changeup Stuff+108
89
Sinker Stuff+109
96
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
4Pitches
2026Season
40%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL | 40.7% | 469 | 103 | qualified |
| FB | 39.8% | 458 | 106 | qualified |
| CH | 11.8% | 136 | 108 | limited sample |
| SI | 7.6% | 88 | 109 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -1.05 |
| K% Δ | +0.002 |
| Sample | 109.0 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 74.3 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 306 | -- | -- |
| K% | 27.4% | 23.5% to 35.1% | +/- 5.8% |
| BB% | 6.0% | 4.2% to 8.6% | +/- 2.2% |
| Whiff% | 25.8% | 23.8% to 31.5% | +/- 3.8% |
| HR/9 | 1.17 | 0.73 to 1.70 | +/- 0.49 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.290 | 0.260 to 0.306 | +/- 0.023 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.8% | 5.0% to 9.9% | +/- 2.4% |
| ERA | 3.25 | 2.05 to 4.55 | +/- 1.25 |
| FIP | 3.18 | 2.15 to 3.28 | +/- 0.56 |
| WHIP | 1.072 | 0.904 to 1.339 | +/- 0.217 |
vs LHH
973 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.250 |
| K% | 28.3% |
| BB% | 5.5% |
| Barrel | 6.2% |
vs RHH
4999 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.255 |
| K% | 27.7% |
| BB% | 5.4% |
| Barrel | 6.5% |