Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATL · 2026

Sale, Chris

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
27.4% K%
Range
23.5% to 35.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATL Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 37 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
94
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
85
Arsenal5 metrics
84
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.36
ERA current pace2.16
ERA rolling p502.47
Observed weight74%
ERA
1.48 1.95 2.47 2.98 3.45
FIP
2.01 2.22 2.45 2.68 2.89
K%
27.4% 28.4% 29.6% 30.7% 31.8%
BB%
4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 5.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.97
95
ERA2.16
94
BB%4.6%
98
K%29.8%
91
xwOBA allowed0.267
90
Barrel allowed6.4%
68 +24 vs proj
Fastball velo95.9
74
Hard-hit allowed35.6%
72
Whiff%27.7%
85
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+108
90
Mithrandir Stuff+107
89
Slider Stuff+102
52
Changeup Stuff+109
95
Sinker Stuff+109
94
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 41%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Sale, Chris · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.267 2026-09-13: 0.2712026-09-14: 0.2712026-09-18: 0.2712026-09-19: 0.2712026-09-20: 0.2712026-09-21: 0.2712026-09-22: 0.2712026-09-23: 0.2712026-09-24: 0.2672026-09-25: 0.2672026-09-26: 0.2672026-09-27: 0.267 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Sale, Chris · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sale, Chris · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 41.5%Slider: 39.6%Changeup: 10.6%Sinker: 8.3% FF41% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 41%SL 40%CH 11%SI 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sale, Chris · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 41% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 96.0 mphFF96 mphSlider: 40% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 79.6 mphSL80 mphChangeup: 11% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 88.3 mphCH88 mphSinker: 8% usage, 16″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 95.5 mphSI95 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 41.2% 766 102 qualified
FB 40.3% 750 108 qualified
CH 10.1% 188 109 limited sample
SI 8.3% 155 109 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 47%, 4-Seam Fastball 42%, Changeup 8%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.09
K% Δ+0.024
Sample173.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings75.5----
Batters Faced311----
K%27.4%23.5% to 35.1%+/- 5.8%
BB%6.0%4.2% to 8.6%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%25.8%23.8% to 31.5%+/- 3.8%
HR/91.170.73 to 1.70+/- 0.49
xwOBA Against0.2900.260 to 0.306+/- 0.023
Barrel% Allowed7.8%5.0% to 9.9%+/- 2.4%
ERA3.252.05 to 4.55+/- 1.25
FIP3.182.15 to 3.28+/- 0.56
WHIP1.0720.904 to 1.339+/- 0.217
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

973 career BF

xwOBA0.250
K%28.3%
BB%5.5%
Barrel6.2%
vs RHH

4999 career BF

xwOBA0.255
K%27.7%
BB%5.4%
Barrel6.5%