Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / KC · 2026

Kimbrel, Craig

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
26.6% K%
Range
21.4% to 36.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team KC Archetype Volatile contact Age 38 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
38
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
47
Arsenal5 metrics
33
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.66
ERA current pace4.50
ERA rolling p504.05
Observed weight46%
ERA
2.26 3.11 4.05 4.99 5.84
FIP
2.30 3.07 3.92 4.77 5.54
K%
20.4% 22.4% 24.6% 26.9% 28.9%
BB%
8.2% 9.5% 10.9% 12.4% 13.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.39
39
ERA4.50
38
BB%11.1%
25
K%20.8%
41 -38 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.316
47
Barrel allowed5.1%
84 +61 vs proj
Fastball velo93.6
36
Hard-hit allowed36.0%
68
Whiff%21.6%
44 -17 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+101
44
Curveball Stuff+100
20
Mithrandir Stuff+101
37
Sinker Stuff+96
13
Slider Stuff+102
51
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 65%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Kimbrel, Craig · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.316 2026-09-12: 0.3112026-09-13: 0.3112026-09-14: 0.3172026-09-18: 0.3162026-09-19: 0.3162026-09-20: 0.3162026-09-21: 0.3162026-09-22: 0.3162026-09-23: 0.3162026-09-24: 0.3162026-09-25: 0.3162026-09-26: 0.316 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Kimbrel, Craig · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 40%40%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kimbrel, Craig · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 65.1%Sweeper: 13.6%Knuckle Curve: 10.2%Sinker: 7.6%Changeup: 2.9%Cutter: 0.5% FF65% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 65%ST 14%KC 10%SI 8%CH 3%FC 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kimbrel, Craig · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 65% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 93.6 mphFF94 mphSweeper: 14% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 85.5 mphST86 mphKnuckle Curve: 10% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 84.0 mphKC84 mphSinker: 8% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 93.8 mphSI94 mphChangeup: 3% usage, 16″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 88.5 mphCH89 mphCutter: 0% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 90.2 mphFC90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 68.9% 335 101 qualified
SL 13.8% 67 102 limited sample
CB 11.1% 54 100 limited sample
SI 4.3% 21 96 limited sample
CH 1.9% 9 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 64%, Knuckle Curve 19%, Sweeper 11%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.92
K% Δ-0.058
Sample46.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings34.1----
Batters Faced147----
K%26.6%21.4% to 36.0%+/- 7.3%
BB%11.3%7.0% to 15.9%+/- 4.4%
Whiff%24.2%20.6% to 34.6%+/- 7.0%
HR/91.180.27 to 2.00+/- 0.86
xwOBA Against0.3220.238 to 0.387+/- 0.075
Barrel% Allowed9.1%4.5% to 15.1%+/- 5.3%
ERA3.581.83 to 6.88+/- 2.53
FIP3.952.08 to 6.65+/- 2.28
WHIP1.3050.989 to 1.792+/- 0.401
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1101 career BF

xwOBA0.305
K%27.2%
BB%13.1%
Barrel10.9%
vs RHH

1250 career BF

xwOBA0.292
K%27.3%
BB%9.7%
Barrel10.7%