Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / AZ · 2026

Kelly, Merrill

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.0% K%
Range
17.1% to 27.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team AZ Archetype Balanced starter Age 38 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
20
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
19
Arsenal7 metrics
46
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.22
ERA current pace4.94
ERA rolling p504.76
Observed weight75%
ERA
3.69 4.20 4.76 5.32 5.83
FIP
4.50 4.86 5.26 5.65 6.01
K%
15.3% 16.1% 17.0% 18.0% 18.8%
BB%
8.0% 8.6% 9.2% 9.8% 10.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.52
21
ERA4.94
27
BB%9.8%
39 -29 vs proj
K%15.6%
9 -34 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.377
4 -27 vs proj
Barrel allowed11.0%
8 -25 vs proj
Fastball velo92.2
17
Hard-hit allowed42.2%
23
Whiff%19.2%
21
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+103
56
Cutter Stuff+100
33
Fastball Stuff+99
29
Mithrandir Stuff+101
34
Curveball Stuff+106
94
Sinker Stuff+103
57
Slider Stuff+98
20
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 28%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Kelly, Merrill · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.377 2026-09-13: 0.3842026-09-14: 0.3842026-09-18: 0.3802026-09-19: 0.3802026-09-20: 0.3802026-09-21: 0.3802026-09-22: 0.3802026-09-23: 0.3802026-09-24: 0.3782026-09-25: 0.3782026-09-26: 0.3772026-09-27: 0.377 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Kelly, Merrill · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kelly, Merrill · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 27.6%Changeup: 27.5%Cutter: 13.7%Curveball: 11.4%Slider: 10.1%Sinker: 9.4% FF28% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 28%CH 28%FC 14%CU 11%SL 10%SI 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kelly, Merrill · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 28% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 92.1 mphFF92 mphChangeup: 28% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 88.5 mphCH88 mphCutter: 14% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 90.9 mphFC91 mphCurveball: 11% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 49″ drop, 82.4 mphCU82 mphSlider: 10% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 86.3 mphSL86 mphSinker: 9% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 92.3 mphSI92 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 90.3 mphPO90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CH 27.9% 489 103 qualified
FB 26.2% 460 99 qualified
FC 14.5% 255 100 qualified
SL 11.3% 199 98 limited sample
CB 10.9% 192 106 limited sample
SI 9.1% 160 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.322 vs 0.293 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Changeup 27%, 4-Seam Fastball 23%, Cutter 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.57
K% Δ-0.055
Sample162.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings142.4----
Batters Faced592----
K%21.0%17.1% to 27.1%+/- 5.0%
BB%7.6%5.7% to 9.7%+/- 2.0%
Whiff%20.5%18.1% to 26.2%+/- 4.1%
HR/91.550.80 to 2.23+/- 0.71
xwOBA Against0.3290.285 to 0.347+/- 0.031
Barrel% Allowed8.5%5.9% to 13.0%+/- 3.6%
ERA4.372.84 to 5.53+/- 1.35
FIP4.523.43 to 5.33+/- 0.95
WHIP1.2701.011 to 1.457+/- 0.223
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2166 career BF

xwOBA0.322
K%19.6%
BB%8.2%
Barrel10.2%
vs RHH

2297 career BF

xwOBA0.293
K%22.5%
BB%6.2%
Barrel9.8%