Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / AZ · 2026

Kelly, Merrill

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.0% K%
Range
17.1% to 27.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team AZ Archetype Balanced starter Age 38 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-17
15
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
15
Arsenal7 metrics
42
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-17
ERA preseason4.22
ERA current pace5.46
ERA rolling p504.92
Observed weight56%
ERA
3.96 4.41 4.92 5.42 5.87
FIP
4.77 5.09 5.44 5.80 6.12
K%
14.0% 15.2% 16.6% 17.9% 19.2%
BB%
6.9% 7.7% 8.4% 9.2% 9.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.54
15
ERA5.46
17
BB%9.4%
42 -24 vs proj
K%12.7%
2 -38 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.403
1 -34 vs proj
Barrel allowed14.4%
1 -37 vs proj
Fastball velo91.9
15
Hard-hit allowed44.9%
15
Whiff%19.9%
25
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-17
Changeup Stuff+105
67
Fastball Stuff+99
25
Mithrandir Stuff+100
31
Curveball Stuff+103
72
Cutter Stuff+96
11
Sinker Stuff+102
46
Slider Stuff+100
40
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 26%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Kelly, Merrill · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.403 2026-06-06: 0.4142026-06-07: 0.4142026-06-08: 0.4142026-06-09: 0.4142026-06-10: 0.4142026-06-11: 0.4142026-06-12: 0.4142026-06-13: 0.4032026-06-14: 0.4032026-06-15: 0.4032026-06-16: 0.4032026-06-17: 0.403 2026-06-06 2026-06-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Kelly, Merrill · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kelly, Merrill · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 26.1%Changeup: 25.8%Cutter: 14.8%Slider: 12.2%Curveball: 11.3%Sinker: 9.6% FF26% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 26%CH 26%FC 15%SL 12%CU 11%SI 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kelly, Merrill · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 26% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 91.9 mphFF92 mphChangeup: 26% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 88.2 mphCH88 mphCutter: 15% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 90.9 mphFC91 mphSlider: 12% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 86.3 mphSL86 mphCurveball: 11% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 49″ drop, 82.0 mphCU82 mphSinker: 10% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 92.2 mphSI92 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 90.3 mphPO90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 26.6% 250 99 qualified
CH 26.3% 247 105 qualified
FC 14.4% 135 96 limited sample
SL 13.0% 122 100 limited sample
CB 10.4% 98 103 limited sample
SI 9.4% 88 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.322 vs 0.293 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Changeup 27%, 4-Seam Fastball 23%, Cutter 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.09
K% Δ-0.084
Sample67.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings143.5----
Batters Faced597----
K%21.0%17.1% to 27.1%+/- 5.0%
BB%7.6%5.7% to 9.7%+/- 2.0%
Whiff%20.5%18.1% to 26.2%+/- 4.1%
HR/91.550.80 to 2.23+/- 0.71
xwOBA Against0.3290.285 to 0.347+/- 0.031
Barrel% Allowed8.5%5.9% to 13.0%+/- 3.6%
ERA4.372.84 to 5.53+/- 1.35
FIP4.523.43 to 5.33+/- 0.95
WHIP1.2701.011 to 1.457+/- 0.223
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2166 career BF

xwOBA0.322
K%19.6%
BB%8.2%
Barrel10.2%
vs RHH

2297 career BF

xwOBA0.293
K%22.5%
BB%6.2%
Barrel9.8%