Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYY · 2026

Cruz, Fernando

High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss

Primary
34.2% K%
Range
28.4% to 43.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYY Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 36 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
71
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
73
Arsenal4 metrics
38
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.87
ERA current pace2.25
ERA rolling p503.19
Observed weight42%
ERA
1.51 2.31 3.19 4.08 4.88
FIP
1.29 2.13 3.07 4.00 4.85
K%
28.7% 31.0% 33.5% 36.0% 38.2%
BB%
8.9% 10.3% 11.8% 13.3% 14.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.23
65
ERA2.25
91
BB%12.8%
14
K%30.8%
95
xwOBA allowed0.266
91
Barrel allowed6.3%
72 +33 vs proj
Fastball velo93.2
28
Hard-hit allowed23.2%
100
Whiff%39.5%
100
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+101
42
Mithrandir Stuff+99
27
Sinker Stuff+90
4
Slider Stuff+106
80
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 52%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Cruz, Fernando · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.266 2026-07-05: 0.2742026-07-06: 0.2742026-07-07: 0.2742026-07-08: 0.2742026-07-09: 0.2742026-07-10: 0.2702026-07-11: 0.2702026-07-12: 0.2672026-07-13: 0.2662026-07-14: 0.2662026-07-15: 0.2662026-07-16: 0.266 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Cruz, Fernando · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 40%40%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 23%23% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cruz, Fernando · 2026 arsenal snapshot Split-Finger: 51.5%4-Seam Fastball: 32.7%Slider: 12.8%Sinker: 3.0% FS52% · 80 mphprimary pitch FS 52%FF 33%SL 13%SI 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cruz, Fernando · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Split-Finger: 52% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 79.9 mphFS80 mph4-Seam Fastball: 33% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 93.2 mphFF93 mphSlider: 13% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 82.4 mphSL82 mphSinker: 3% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 92.7 mphSI93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 65.7% 151 101 limited sample
SL 28.3% 65 106 limited sample
SI 6.1% 14 90 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.283 vs 0.262 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Split-Finger 58%, 4-Seam Fastball 22%, Sinker 13%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.31
K% Δ-0.034
Sample40.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings39.1----
Batters Faced167----
K%34.2%28.4% to 43.4%+/- 7.5%
BB%11.4%7.4% to 16.1%+/- 4.4%
Whiff%35.0%31.1% to 42.1%+/- 5.5%
HR/91.040.34 to 1.92+/- 0.79
xwOBA Against0.2750.214 to 0.371+/- 0.078
Barrel% Allowed8.4%4.0% to 13.5%+/- 4.7%
ERA3.561.82 to 6.52+/- 2.35
FIP3.211.64 to 6.60+/- 2.48
WHIP1.2040.915 to 1.677+/- 0.381
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

380 career BF

xwOBA0.283
K%32.6%
BB%12.8%
Barrel9.9%
vs RHH

501 career BF

xwOBA0.262
K%35.6%
BB%10.3%
Barrel8.2%