Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYY · 2026

Cruz, Fernando

High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss

Primary
34.2% K%
Range
28.4% to 43.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYY Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 36 Status IL-60
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
62
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
62
Arsenal4 metrics
30
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.87
ERA current pace3.13
ERA rolling p503.50
Observed weight50%
ERA
1.84 2.63 3.50 4.37 5.16
FIP
1.88 2.71 3.63 4.56 5.39
K%
28.2% 30.1% 32.4% 34.6% 36.5%
BB%
9.7% 10.9% 12.3% 13.6% 14.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.34
49
ERA3.13
79
BB%13.4%
9
K%29.3%
90
xwOBA allowed0.281
83
Barrel allowed9.6%
18 -18 vs proj
Fastball velo93.1
28
Hard-hit allowed28.1%
98
Whiff%37.4%
99
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Mithrandir Stuff+98
20
Fastball Stuff+101
38
Sinker Stuff+95
13
Slider Stuff+102
48
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 51%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Cruz, Fernando · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.281 2026-09-12: 0.2812026-09-13: 0.2812026-09-14: 0.2812026-09-18: 0.2812026-09-19: 0.2812026-09-20: 0.2812026-09-21: 0.2812026-09-22: 0.2812026-09-23: 0.2812026-09-24: 0.2812026-09-25: 0.2812026-09-26: 0.281 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Cruz, Fernando · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 42%42%Whiff: 37%37%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 28%28% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cruz, Fernando · 2026 arsenal snapshot Split-Finger: 51.5%4-Seam Fastball: 31.6%Sweeper: 13.6%Sinker: 3.0%Slider: 0.3% FS51% · 80 mphprimary pitch FS 51%FF 32%ST 14%SI 3%SL 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cruz, Fernando · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Split-Finger: 51% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 80.0 mphFS80 mph4-Seam Fastball: 32% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 93.2 mphFF93 mphSweeper: 14% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 82.2 mphST82 mphSinker: 3% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 92.6 mphSI93 mphSlider: 0% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 80.4 mphSL80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 65.1% 183 101 limited sample
SL 28.5% 80 102 limited sample
SI 6.4% 18 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.283 vs 0.262 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Split-Finger 58%, 4-Seam Fastball 22%, Sinker 13%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.43
K% Δ-0.050
Sample55.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings38.7----
Batters Faced165----
K%34.2%28.4% to 43.4%+/- 7.5%
BB%11.4%7.4% to 16.1%+/- 4.4%
Whiff%35.0%31.1% to 42.1%+/- 5.5%
HR/91.040.34 to 1.92+/- 0.79
xwOBA Against0.2750.214 to 0.371+/- 0.078
Barrel% Allowed8.4%4.0% to 13.5%+/- 4.7%
ERA3.561.82 to 6.52+/- 2.35
FIP3.211.63 to 6.60+/- 2.48
WHIP1.2040.915 to 1.677+/- 0.381
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

380 career BF

xwOBA0.283
K%32.6%
BB%12.8%
Barrel9.9%
vs RHH

501 career BF

xwOBA0.262
K%35.6%
BB%10.3%
Barrel8.2%