Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYY · 2026

Cruz, Fernando

High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss

Primary
34.2% K%
Range
28.4% to 43.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYY Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 36 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.87
ERA current pace1.96
ERA rolling p503.27
Observed weight31%
ERA
1.50 2.34 3.27 4.21 5.05
FIP
1.36 2.25 3.24 4.22 5.11
K%
28.4% 30.9% 33.8% 36.7% 39.2%
BB%
8.4% 10.0% 11.7% 13.4% 14.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%12.8%
11
Barrel allowed8.3%
41
Fastball velo93.1
28
Hard-hit allowed28.3%
95
K%30.3%
92
Whiff%39.9%
99
xwOBA allowed0.289
72
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+97
20
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 52%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

11 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Cruz, Fernando · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-19: 0.2972026-05-21: 0.2922026-05-23: 0.2852026-05-24: 0.2852026-05-25: 0.2852026-05-26: 0.2852026-05-28: 0.2772026-05-29: 0.2772026-05-30: 0.2772026-05-31: 0.2762026-06-01: 0.289 2026-05-19 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Cruz, Fernando · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 40%40%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 28%28% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cruz, Fernando · 2026 arsenal snapshot Split-Finger: 51.9%4-Seam Fastball: 31.8%Slider: 13.1%Sinker: 3.3% MIX FS 52%FF 32%SL 13%SI 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cruz, Fernando · 2026 arsenal snapshot FS: HB 0.0, IVB 3.4FSFF: HB -0.0, IVB 1.2FFSL: HB -0.7, IVB 3.0SLSI: HB 1.1, IVB 1.5SI horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 66.5% 131 100 limited sample
SL 26.9% 53 106 limited sample
SI 6.6% 13 90 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.283 vs 0.262 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Split-Finger 58%, 4-Seam Fastball 22%, Sinker 13%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.62
K% Δ-0.040
Sample25.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings39.7----
Batters Faced170----
K%34.2%28.4% to 43.4%+/- 7.5%
BB%11.4%7.4% to 16.1%+/- 4.4%
Whiff%35.0%31.1% to 42.1%+/- 5.5%
HR/91.040.34 to 1.92+/- 0.79
xwOBA Against0.2750.214 to 0.371+/- 0.078
Barrel% Allowed8.4%4.0% to 13.5%+/- 4.7%
ERA3.581.82 to 6.52+/- 2.35
FIP3.211.64 to 6.60+/- 2.48
WHIP1.2030.915 to 1.677+/- 0.381
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

380 career BF

xwOBA0.283
K%32.6%
BB%12.8%
Barrel9.9%
vs RHH

501 career BF

xwOBA0.262
K%35.6%
BB%10.3%
Barrel8.2%