Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TOR · 2026

Scherzer, Max

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.0% K%
Range
16.7% to 28.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team TOR Archetype Volatile contact Age 42 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
9
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
15
Arsenal5 metrics
39
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason4.57
ERA current pace10.23
ERA rolling p506.47
Observed weight34%
ERA
5.35 5.88 6.47 7.05 7.58
FIP
4.99 5.29 5.62 5.96 6.26
K%
15.7% 17.6% 19.7% 21.8% 23.7%
BB%
6.4% 7.3% 8.2% 9.2% 10.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.57
12
ERA10.23
0
BB%10.7%
26 -47 vs proj
K%14.0%
5 -41 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.378
5 -32 vs proj
Barrel allowed13.3%
3 -30 vs proj
Fastball velo93.1
27
Hard-hit allowed37.8%
58
Whiff%15.5%
3 -32 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Changeup Stuff+103
54
Curveball Stuff+100
24
Fastball Stuff+104
61
Mithrandir Stuff+101
38
Slider Stuff+97
18
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 48%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Scherzer, Max · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.378 2026-07-05: 0.3782026-07-06: 0.3772026-07-07: 0.3772026-07-08: 0.3772026-07-09: 0.3772026-07-10: 0.3772026-07-11: 0.3772026-07-12: 0.3772026-07-13: 0.3772026-07-14: 0.3782026-07-15: 0.3782026-07-16: 0.378 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Scherzer, Max · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 16%16%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Scherzer, Max · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 48.2%Slider: 22.1%Changeup: 15.9%Curveball: 12.9%Cutter: 1.0% FF48% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 48%SL 22%CH 16%CU 13%FC 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Scherzer, Max · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 48% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 93.1 mphFF93 mphSlider: 22% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.1 mphSL86 mphChangeup: 16% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 84.3 mphCH84 mphCurveball: 13% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 53″ drop, 75.9 mphCU76 mphCutter: 1% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 88.7 mphFC89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 47.2% 162 104 limited sample
SL 22.4% 77 97 limited sample
CH 14.9% 51 103 limited sample
CB 14.0% 48 100 limited sample
FC 1.5% 5 91 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.316 vs 0.290 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 49%, Slider 23%, Changeup 14%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+5.90
K% Δ-0.080
Sample26.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings138.8----
Batters Faced584----
K%22.0%16.7% to 28.1%+/- 5.7%
BB%7.1%5.2% to 9.4%+/- 2.1%
Whiff%21.1%17.8% to 26.4%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.630.98 to 2.69+/- 0.85
xwOBA Against0.3270.274 to 0.353+/- 0.040
Barrel% Allowed8.9%5.6% to 13.5%+/- 4.0%
ERA4.333.43 to 6.43+/- 1.50
FIP4.553.37 to 5.08+/- 0.85
WHIP1.2791.072 to 1.603+/- 0.265
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

3792 career BF

xwOBA0.316
K%18.6%
BB%7.9%
Barrel11.2%
vs RHH

3640 career BF

xwOBA0.290
K%22.7%
BB%5.4%
Barrel9.6%