Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TOR · 2026

Scherzer, Max

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.0% K%
Range
16.7% to 28.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team TOR Archetype Volatile contact Age 42 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
31
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
34
Arsenal6 metrics
49
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.57
ERA current pace6.07
ERA rolling p505.47
Observed weight60%
ERA
4.38 4.90 5.47 6.04 6.55
FIP
4.41 4.70 5.02 5.34 5.63
K%
17.0% 18.3% 19.8% 21.2% 22.5%
BB%
7.3% 8.1% 8.8% 9.6% 10.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.35
47
ERA6.07
11
BB%10.1%
36 -39 vs proj
K%17.9%
20 -28 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.320
41
Barrel allowed9.1%
25
Fastball velo93.0
26
Hard-hit allowed33.5%
84
Whiff%18.4%
15 -22 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+105
71
Mithrandir Stuff+103
58
Slider Stuff+101
41
Changeup Stuff+103
59
Curveball Stuff+103
55
Cutter Stuff+96
10
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 48%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Scherzer, Max · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.320 2026-09-12: 0.3232026-09-13: 0.3232026-09-14: 0.3232026-09-18: 0.3192026-09-19: 0.3192026-09-20: 0.3202026-09-21: 0.3202026-09-22: 0.3202026-09-23: 0.3202026-09-24: 0.3202026-09-25: 0.3202026-09-26: 0.320 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Scherzer, Max · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 33%33% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Scherzer, Max · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 48.0%Slider: 17.3%Changeup: 15.1%Curveball: 14.2%Cutter: 5.4% FF48% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 48%SL 17%CH 15%CU 14%FC 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Scherzer, Max · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 48% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 93.0 mphFF93 mphSlider: 17% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 85.3 mphSL85 mphChangeup: 15% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 83.9 mphCH84 mphCurveball: 14% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 57″ drop, 74.6 mphCU75 mphCutter: 5% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 87.8 mphFC88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 47.7% 525 105 qualified
SL 19.5% 215 101 qualified
CB 15.1% 166 103 limited sample
CH 14.5% 159 103 limited sample
FC 3.2% 35 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.316 vs 0.290 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 49%, Slider 23%, Changeup 14%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.74
K% Δ-0.041
Sample81.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings137.0----
Batters Faced576----
K%22.0%16.7% to 28.1%+/- 5.7%
BB%7.1%5.2% to 9.4%+/- 2.1%
Whiff%21.1%17.8% to 26.4%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.630.98 to 2.69+/- 0.85
xwOBA Against0.3270.274 to 0.353+/- 0.040
Barrel% Allowed8.9%5.6% to 13.5%+/- 4.0%
ERA4.343.43 to 6.43+/- 1.50
FIP4.553.37 to 5.08+/- 0.85
WHIP1.2801.072 to 1.603+/- 0.265
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

3792 career BF

xwOBA0.316
K%18.6%
BB%7.9%
Barrel11.2%
vs RHH

3640 career BF

xwOBA0.290
K%22.7%
BB%5.4%
Barrel9.6%