Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / DET · 2026

Jansen, Kenley

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
22.5% K%
Range
17.2% to 31.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team DET Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 39 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
49
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
57
Arsenal4 metrics
60
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.84
ERA current pace4.56
ERA rolling p504.06
Observed weight31%
ERA
2.56 3.27 4.06 4.85 5.57
FIP
3.77 4.00 4.25 4.51 4.74
K%
19.1% 21.6% 24.3% 27.0% 29.5%
BB%
7.3% 8.6% 10.1% 11.5% 12.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.21
69
ERA4.56
35
BB%13.1%
11 -34 vs proj
K%25.2%
69 +19 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.304
61
Barrel allowed6.1%
75 +40 vs proj
Fastball velo93.4
32
Hard-hit allowed27.3%
98
Whiff%24.4%
61 +16 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Cutter Stuff+103
66
Mithrandir Stuff+105
75
Sinker Stuff+102
50
Slider Stuff+102
48
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 82%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Jansen, Kenley · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.304 2026-07-06: 0.3072026-07-07: 0.2982026-07-08: 0.2982026-07-09: 0.2982026-07-10: 0.2982026-07-11: 0.3062026-07-12: 0.3062026-07-13: 0.3042026-07-14: 0.3042026-07-15: 0.3042026-07-16: 0.3042026-07-17: 0.304 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Jansen, Kenley · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 27%27% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Jansen, Kenley · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 81.6%Slider: 10.4%Sinker: 8.0% FC82% · 92 mphprimary pitch FC 82%SL 10%SI 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Jansen, Kenley · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Cutter: 82% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 92.2 mphFC92 mphSlider: 10% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 84.0 mphSL84 mphSinker: 8% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 93.4 mphSI93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 80.3% 220 103 qualified
SI 9.9% 27 102 limited sample
SL 9.9% 27 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.283 vs 0.261 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Cutter 81%, Sinker 9%, Slider 6%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.75
K% Δ+0.027
Sample25.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings38.6----
Batters Faced159----
K%22.5%17.2% to 31.3%+/- 7.1%
BB%8.9%5.5% to 12.7%+/- 3.6%
Whiff%22.4%17.8% to 27.9%+/- 5.0%
HR/91.120.44 to 1.83+/- 0.70
xwOBA Against0.3160.256 to 0.373+/- 0.059
Barrel% Allowed8.8%4.8% to 13.2%+/- 4.2%
ERA3.811.98 to 5.95+/- 1.99
FIP3.922.73 to 4.01+/- 0.64
WHIP1.1990.850 to 1.532+/- 0.341
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1405 career BF

xwOBA0.283
K%21.7%
BB%9.4%
Barrel9.3%
vs RHH

1454 career BF

xwOBA0.261
K%23.9%
BB%6.5%
Barrel8.7%