Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / DET · 2026

Verlander, Justin

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
18.5% K%
Range
13.4% to 25.0%
Live Δ
--
Team DET Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 43 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
25
Pitching
percentile
Arsenal4 metrics
25
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.92
ERA current pace12.27
ERA rolling p506.39
Observed weight20%
ERA
4.89 5.60 6.39 7.18 7.90
FIP
3.97 4.40 4.89 5.37 5.80
K%
14.0% 16.3% 18.8% 21.4% 23.6%
BB%
5.7% 6.7% 7.7% 8.8% 9.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Curveball Stuff+100
21
Fastball Stuff+103
54
Mithrandir Stuff+99
24
Slider Stuff+91
3
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 51%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

0 snapshots
No chart yet

No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Verlander, Justin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 42%42%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 43%43%Hard hit allowed: 53%53% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Verlander, Justin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 50.9%Slider: 20.4%Curveball: 13.7%Changeup: 9.3%Sweeper: 4.9%Sinker: 0.9% FF51% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 51%SL 20%CU 14%CH 9%ST 5%SI 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Verlander, Justin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 51% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 93.3 mphFF93 mphSlider: 20% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 87.4 mphSL87 mphCurveball: 14% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 56″ drop, 78.2 mphCU78 mphChangeup: 9% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 83.2 mphCH83 mphSweeper: 5% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 80.8 mphST81 mphSinker: 1% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 91.9 mphSI92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 42.5% 34 103 limited sample
SL 30.0% 24 91 limited sample
CB 17.5% 14 100 limited sample
CH 10.0% 8 115 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 45%, Slider 23%, Curveball 14%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

No Live State delta is available for this player yet.

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings141.4----
Batters Faced616----
K%18.5%13.4% to 25.0%+/- 5.8%
BB%8.3%6.3% to 11.0%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%18.6%16.5% to 24.8%+/- 4.1%
HR/91.480.82 to 2.13+/- 0.65
xwOBA Against0.3450.295 to 0.372+/- 0.038
Barrel% Allowed8.5%6.6% to 12.0%+/- 2.7%
ERA5.153.47 to 7.12+/- 1.82
FIP4.773.27 to 5.50+/- 1.11
WHIP1.4071.199 to 1.815+/- 0.308
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

3463 career BF

xwOBA0.313
K%17.2%
BB%9.5%
Barrel8.0%
vs RHH

3630 career BF

xwOBA0.307
K%17.2%
BB%7.4%
Barrel9.3%