Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / HOU · 2026

Spence, Lucas

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.295 xwOBA
Range
0.124 to 0.324
Live Δ
yes
Team HOU Archetype Balanced regular Age 23 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
79
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
63
Defense1 metrics
80
Speed1 metrics
68
Plate skills9 metrics
65
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
xwOBA preseason0.266
xwOBA current pace0.290
xwOBA rolling p500.271
Observed weight21%
xwOBA
0.190 0.229 0.271 0.313 0.351
wOBA
0.256 0.293 0.334 0.376 0.413
ISO
0.076 0.110 0.147 0.185 0.219
K%
14.3% 19.7% 25.7% 31.8% 37.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.8%
78 +40 vs proj
Exit velocity92.2
95
Hard-hit%51.6%
96 +58 vs proj
xBA0.341
75
xSLG0.675
93
xwOBA0.290
35
BB%6.8%
30 -22 vs proj
Bat speed70.7
67
K%37.3%
2 -34 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg1.0 · CF
80
Arm Runs-0.5 · CF
Small sample
Range Runs0.5 · CF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.1 · CF
68
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-09-27
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.0% · rebadged research
63
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.7% · rebadged research
76
Correct Decisions72.3% · rebadged research
94
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.298 · borderline
31
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.276 · validated thin sample
62
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · insufficient sample
54
Resists FastballwOBA 0.326 · validated
73
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.355 · validated
56
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
74
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

2 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Spence, Lucas · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.302 0.290 2026-09-26: 0.2862026-09-27: 0.290 2026-09-26 2026-09-27 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

11 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026, 2025). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Spence, Lucas · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 0% of plotted batted ballsPull 0%Center field third: 82% of plotted batted ballsCenter 82%Right field third: 18% of plotted batted ballsOppo 18% LF 315 CF 409 RF 326 2026-07-27 · fielders choice · SL · ground_ball · EV 104.8 / LA -5.02026-07-27 · field out · FS · line_drive · EV 103.6 / LA 16.02026-07-27 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 85.0 / LA -38.02026-07-31 · single · EP · ground_ball · EV 92.1 / LA -14.02026-09-23 · field out · FF · popup · EV 50.8 / LA 55.02026-09-25 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 56.4 / LA 9.02026-09-25 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.0 / LA 32.02026-09-26 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.1 / LA 35.02026-09-26 · double · FS · line_drive · EV 106.4 / LA 10.02025-03-23 · field out · pitch · ground_ball2025-03-23 · single · pitch · line_drive 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Spence, Lucas · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 47%47%Chase: 28%28%Whiff: 39%39%Zone contact: 71%71%Contact: 61%61%Hard hit: 52%52% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
hitter
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.005
wOBA Δ+0.040
Sample59 PA
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances201----
Home Runs7----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.2950.124 to 0.324+/- 0.100
ISO0.1400.035 to 0.212+/- 0.089
Barrel%4.2%0.2% to 5.6%+/- 2.7%
Hard-Hit%35.8%12.2% to 37.9%+/- 12.9%
K%25.3%6.7% to 35.5%+/- 14.4%
BB%8.7%1.4% to 8.9%+/- 3.7%
BABIP0.2950.191 to 0.364+/- 0.086
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

0 career PA

xwOBA0.001
K%0.1%
BB%0.0%
Barrel0.0%
vs RHP

2 career PA

xwOBA0.001
K%0.1%
BB%0.0%
Barrel0.0%