Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / AZ · 2026
None
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team AZ
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 24
Status Out / inactive
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
49
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.263 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.289 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.273 |
| Observed weight | 37% |
xwOBA
0.207
0.238
0.273
0.307
0.339
wOBA
0.298
0.323
0.351
0.379
0.405
ISO
0.051
0.080
0.112
0.144
0.173
K%
18.5%
22.7%
27.4%
32.1%
36.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.6%
43
Exit velocity86.8
32
Hard-hit%36.7%
36
xBA0.368
87
xSLG0.562
66
xwOBA0.289
31
BB%6.1%
21
Bat speed70.8
69
K%31.3%
9
-21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.5 · CF
97
Arm Strength90.5 · CF
27
Outs Above Avg0.0 · CF
44
Range Runs-0.0 · CF
50
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.8 · CF
71
Bolts1.0 · CF
17
SB Success Rate83.3% · CF
65
Sprint Speed28.9 · CF
91
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.3% · rebadged research
79
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 32.1% · rebadged research
10
Correct Decisions66.0% · rebadged research
47
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.303 · borderline
18
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.267 · insufficient sample
86
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.294 · validated thin sample
15
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.347 · insufficient sample
19
Resists FastballwOBA 0.352 · validated
30
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.345 · validated
83
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
44
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
57 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.005 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.057 |
| Sample | 131 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 205 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.294 | 0.118 to 0.320 | +/- 0.101 |
| ISO | 0.129 | 0.021 to 0.212 | +/- 0.095 |
| Barrel% | 3.8% | 0.2% to 5.0% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 35.8% | 12.5% to 38.2% | +/- 12.8% |
| K% | 25.9% | 8.8% to 36.5% | +/- 13.9% |
| BB% | 6.3% | 1.3% to 8.9% | +/- 3.8% |
| BABIP | 0.290 | 0.179 to 0.364 | +/- 0.093 |
vs LHP
1 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.8% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
9 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.9% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |