Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / AZ · 2026
Waldschmidt, Ryan
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team AZ
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 24
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
44
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.263 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.297 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.282 |
| Observed weight | 57% |
xwOBA
0.234
0.257
0.282
0.308
0.330
wOBA
0.305
0.322
0.340
0.359
0.376
ISO
0.073
0.093
0.115
0.137
0.157
K%
21.2%
24.2%
27.5%
30.7%
33.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.7%
32
Exit velocity85.3
22
Hard-hit%30.5%
18
-20 vs proj
xBA0.359
87
xSLG0.541
63
xwOBA0.297
43
BB%7.5%
38
Bat speed69.9
52
K%29.3%
19
-15 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs3.1 · CF
94
Arm Strength90.5 · CF
23
Outs Above Avg0.0 · CF
50
Range Runs1.4 · CF
62
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.3 · CF
49
Bolts4.0 · CF
39
SB Success Rate77.8% · CF
43
Sprint Speed29.1 · CF
91
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.0% · rebadged research
85
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.9% · rebadged research
18
Correct Decisions68.0% · rebadged research
70
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.316 · borderline
14
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · insufficient sample
57
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.293 · validated thin sample
21
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.334 · insufficient sample
27
Resists FastballwOBA 0.333 · validated
59
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.325 · validated
96
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
65
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
115 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.002 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.046 |
| Sample | 294 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 205 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.294 | 0.115 to 0.320 | +/- 0.102 |
| ISO | 0.129 | 0.021 to 0.212 | +/- 0.095 |
| Barrel% | 3.8% | 0.2% to 5.0% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 35.9% | 12.5% to 38.2% | +/- 12.8% |
| K% | 25.7% | 8.8% to 36.5% | +/- 13.9% |
| BB% | 6.3% | 1.3% to 8.9% | +/- 3.8% |
| BABIP | 0.290 | 0.179 to 0.364 | +/- 0.093 |
vs LHP
1 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.8% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
9 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.9% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |