Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / SEA · 2026
Emerson, Colt
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team SEA
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 21
Status IL-60
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
29
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.270 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.248 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.258 |
| Observed weight | 53% |
xwOBA
0.209
0.232
0.258
0.284
0.308
wOBA
0.247
0.264
0.283
0.302
0.320
ISO
0.097
0.119
0.143
0.167
0.189
K%
23.5%
26.5%
29.8%
33.1%
36.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.2%
27
Exit velocity85.9
27
Hard-hit%31.7%
22
xBA0.314
45
xSLG0.480
44
xwOBA0.248
8
-44 vs proj
BB%6.8%
31
-21 vs proj
Bat speed70.7
67
K%33.7%
6
-27 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · SS
45
Arm Strength88.9 · SS
65
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · SS
19
Range Runs-3.3 · SS
22
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.0 · SS
38
SB Success Rate66.7% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.2% · rebadged research
44
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.0% · rebadged research
73
Correct Decisions67.6% · rebadged research
66
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.315 · borderline
15
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.286 · insufficient sample
32
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288 · validated thin sample
28
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.322 · insufficient sample
58
Resists FastballwOBA 0.335 · validated
57
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.373 · validated
19
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
55
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
56 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.056 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.021 |
| Sample | 249 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 200 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.304 | 0.138 to 0.333 | +/- 0.098 |
| ISO | 0.141 | 0.024 to 0.209 | +/- 0.092 |
| Barrel% | 3.5% | 0.2% to 5.8% | +/- 2.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 35.7% | 13.9% to 41.5% | +/- 13.8% |
| K% | 25.9% | 9.8% to 35.2% | +/- 12.7% |
| BB% | 8.6% | 1.4% to 10.5% | +/- 4.6% |
| BABIP | 0.293 | 0.133 to 0.353 | +/- 0.110 |
vs LHP
1 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.5% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
2 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.4% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |