Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / PIT · 2026
Flores Jr., Rafael
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team PIT
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
92
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.300 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.358 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.325 |
| Observed weight | 43% |
xwOBA
0.280
0.301
0.325
0.349
0.371
wOBA
0.345
0.368
0.394
0.419
0.442
ISO
0.141
0.162
0.186
0.209
0.231
K%
18.8%
22.2%
26.0%
29.8%
33.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.0%
95
+58 vs proj
Exit velocity91.1
88
Hard-hit%48.1%
89
+46 vs proj
xBA0.362
89
xSLG0.743
97
xwOBA0.358
94
+40 vs proj
BB%9.6%
66
+33 vs proj
Bat speed72.0
80
K%27.7%
24
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.8 · C
25
Catcher Throwing-0.5 · C
40
Framing Runs0.5 · C
61
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · C
25
Pop Time1.9 · C
57
Range Runs-0.6 · C
27
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.4 · C
24
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.4% · rebadged research
61
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.8% · rebadged research
13
Correct Decisions65.2% · rebadged research
40
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.320 · borderline
10
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.316 · insufficient sample
3
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.281 · validated thin sample
44
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.356 · insufficient sample
7
Resists FastballwOBA 0.340 · validated
44
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.338 · validated
86
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
37
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
73 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.051 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.087 |
| Sample | 166 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 210 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.307 | 0.161 to 0.303 | +/- 0.071 |
| ISO | 0.149 | 0.084 to 0.228 | +/- 0.072 |
| Barrel% | 4.1% | 0.5% to 5.9% | +/- 2.7% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.8% | 16.5% to 42.3% | +/- 12.9% |
| K% | 25.0% | 10.9% to 36.5% | +/- 12.8% |
| BB% | 7.0% | 1.9% to 10.8% | +/- 4.4% |
| BABIP | 0.299 | 0.189 to 0.336 | +/- 0.074 |
vs LHP
9 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.027 |
| K% | 3.1% |
| BB% | 0.9% |
| Barrel | 0.4% |
vs RHP
11 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.026 |
| K% | 3.1% |
| BB% | 0.8% |
| Barrel | 0.3% |