Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / PIT · 2026
Flores Jr.., Rafael
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team PIT
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 26
Status Out / inactive
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.300 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.753 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.324 |
| Observed weight | 5% |
xwOBA
0.256
0.288
0.324
0.360
0.392
wOBA
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
ISO
0.076
0.108
0.145
0.181
0.213
K%
12.1%
17.9%
24.3%
30.7%
36.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.4 · C
Small sample
Framing Runs0.6 · C
Small sample
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No chart yet
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
13 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026, 2025). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 210 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.307 | 0.161 to 0.303 | +/- 0.071 |
| ISO | 0.149 | 0.084 to 0.228 | +/- 0.072 |
| Barrel% | 4.1% | 0.5% to 5.9% | +/- 2.7% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.8% | 16.5% to 42.3% | +/- 12.9% |
| K% | 25.1% | 10.9% to 36.5% | +/- 12.8% |
| BB% | 7.0% | 1.9% to 10.8% | +/- 4.4% |
| BABIP | 0.299 | 0.189 to 0.336 | +/- 0.074 |
vs LHP
9 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.027 |
| K% | 3.1% |
| BB% | 0.9% |
| Barrel | 0.4% |
vs RHP
11 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.026 |
| K% | 3.1% |
| BB% | 0.8% |
| Barrel | 0.3% |