Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / PIT · 2026
None
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team PIT
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 20
Status IL-60
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
53
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.270 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.305 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.289 |
| Observed weight | 54% |
xwOBA
0.238
0.262
0.289
0.316
0.340
wOBA
0.317
0.335
0.354
0.374
0.392
ISO
0.090
0.110
0.132
0.155
0.175
K%
19.0%
22.4%
26.1%
29.8%
33.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.4%
54
+21 vs proj
Exit velocity87.3
39
Hard-hit%37.7%
45
xBA0.338
67
xSLG0.552
64
xwOBA0.305
46
BB%6.9%
29
Bat speed72.7
86
K%26.8%
27
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength93.5 · SS
91
Outs Above Avg-6.0 · SS
5
Range Runs-4.8 · SS
11
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs4.8 · SS
100
Bolts48.0 · SS
96
SB Success Rate92.9% · SS
84
Sprint Speed29.9 · SS
99
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.1% · rebadged research
21
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.3% · rebadged research
49
Correct Decisions62.3% · rebadged research
17
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
22
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.274 · borderline
79
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.286 · insufficient sample
27
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.246 · validated thin sample
98
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · insufficient sample
55
Resists FastballwOBA 0.361 · validated
15
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.388 · validated
8
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
144 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.003 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.052 |
| Sample | 261 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 201 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.302 | 0.120 to 0.330 | +/- 0.105 |
| ISO | 0.141 | 0.047 to 0.219 | +/- 0.086 |
| Barrel% | 4.0% | 0.2% to 5.7% | +/- 2.7% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.2% | 9.6% to 40.4% | +/- 15.4% |
| K% | 26.8% | 8.8% to 38.6% | +/- 14.9% |
| BB% | 6.7% | 0.9% to 9.6% | +/- 4.4% |
| BABIP | 0.293 | 0.167 to 0.359 | +/- 0.096 |
vs LHP
0 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.5% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
2 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.5% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |