Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / LAD · 2026
Paula, Josue De
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team LAD
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 21
Status Out / inactive
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
55
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.257 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.437 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.286 |
| Observed weight | 16% |
xwOBA
0.224
0.253
0.286
0.319
0.348
wOBA
0.367
0.414
0.465
0.517
0.564
ISO
0.082
0.115
0.151
0.188
0.221
K%
11.4%
16.4%
21.9%
27.5%
32.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
64
Regression applied
Range Runs0.0 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.1 · DH
41
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 78.1% · rebadged research
98
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.9% · rebadged research
82
Correct Decisions72.4% · rebadged research
94
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.299 · borderline
30
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.285 · insufficient sample
33
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.295 · validated thin sample
20
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.339 · insufficient sample
20
Resists FastballwOBA 0.377 · validated
8
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.348 · validated
72
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline116
98
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No chart yet
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
19 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 200 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.302 | 0.143 to 0.286 | +/- 0.072 |
| ISO | 0.145 | 0.048 to 0.210 | +/- 0.081 |
| Barrel% | 4.8% | 0.5% to 6.9% | +/- 3.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.6% | 15.2% to 42.3% | +/- 13.6% |
| K% | 24.7% | 9.3% to 34.3% | +/- 12.5% |
| BB% | 8.2% | 2.2% to 9.9% | +/- 3.9% |
| BABIP | 0.283 | 0.175 to 0.340 | +/- 0.082 |
vs LHP
2 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.5% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.3% |
vs RHP
2 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.4% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.5% |