Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / SEA · 2026

Arroyo, Michael

Young power bat with breakout ceiling

Primary
0.302 xwOBA
Range
0.114 to 0.283
Live Δ
--
Team SEA Archetype Impact slugger Age 22 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
59
Offense
percentile
Defense1 metrics
66
Speed1 metrics
75
Plate skills10 metrics
56
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
xwOBA preseason0.257
xwOBA current pace0.346
xwOBA rolling p500.270
Observed weight14%
xwOBA
0.195 0.230 0.270 0.309 0.344
wOBA
0.302 0.353 0.409 0.465 0.515
ISO
0.036 0.075 0.118 0.161 0.200
K%
11.8% 17.4% 23.5% 29.7% 35.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 2B
66 Regression applied
Range Runs-0.1 · 2B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.3 · 2B
75
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-09-26
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.8% · rebadged research
67
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 13.2% · rebadged research
99
Correct Decisions75.6% · rebadged research
99
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.307 · borderline
20
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · insufficient sample
27
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.276 · validated thin sample
62
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.333 · insufficient sample
30
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339 · validated
46
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.374 · validated
18
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline116
98
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

0 snapshots
No chart yet

No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

16 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Arroyo, Michael · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 25% of plotted batted ballsPull 25%Center field third: 62% of plotted batted ballsCenter 62%Right field third: 12% of plotted batted ballsOppo 12% LF 331 CF 401 RF 326 2026-09-06 · field out · FC · popup · EV 76.8 / LA 69.02026-09-06 · field out · CH · popup · EV 79.7 / LA 63.02026-09-12 · sac fly · CH · line_drive · EV 100.0 / LA 20.02026-09-12 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 106.0 / LA 8.02026-09-12 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 103.6 / LA 32.02026-09-12 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 104.0 / LA 19.02026-09-12 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 87.2 / LA -7.02026-09-13 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 67.5 / LA 6.02026-09-18 · double · CU · ground_ball · EV 99.5 / LA 2.02026-09-20 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 90.2 / LA 33.02026-09-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.8 / LA 36.02026-09-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.3 / LA 40.02026-09-25 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 78.4 / LA -11.02026-09-25 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 86.7 / LA -35.02026-09-25 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 86.7 / LA 16.02026-09-25 · field error · SL · ground_ball · EV 85.5 / LA -33.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Arroyo, Michael · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 47%47%Chase: 26%26%Whiff: 17%17%Zone contact: 86%86%Contact: 83%83%Hard hit: 29%29% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
hitter
Live context

Current-season signal

No Live State delta is available for this player yet.

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances200----
Home Runs6----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3020.114 to 0.283+/- 0.085
ISO0.1480.022 to 0.210+/- 0.094
Barrel%5.2%0.2% to 7.1%+/- 3.4%
Hard-Hit%37.1%10.3% to 43.3%+/- 16.5%
K%26.7%8.8% to 35.8%+/- 13.5%
BB%7.1%0.8% to 9.9%+/- 4.6%
BABIP0.2830.135 to 0.343+/- 0.104
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

0 career PA

xwOBA0.001
K%0.4%
BB%0.0%
Barrel0.4%
vs RHP

3 career PA

xwOBA0.001
K%0.5%
BB%0.0%
Barrel0.4%