Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / SEA · 2026

Montes, Lazaro

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.301 xwOBA
Range
0.093 to 0.325
Live Δ
yes
Team SEA Archetype Ground-ball contact Age 22 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
82
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
74
Defense1 metrics
50
Speed1 metrics
21
Plate skills10 metrics
52
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
xwOBA preseason0.260
xwOBA current pace0.313
xwOBA rolling p500.271
Observed weight20%
xwOBA
0.176 0.221 0.271 0.320 0.365
wOBA
0.245 0.284 0.326 0.369 0.407
ISO
0.070 0.104 0.142 0.180 0.214
K%
18.9% 24.6% 31.0% 37.4% 43.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.3%
83 +44 vs proj
Exit velocity89.9
77
Hard-hit%44.0%
77 +37 vs proj
xBA0.376
95
xSLG0.869
100
xwOBA0.313
61
BB%10.9%
79 +31 vs proj
Bat speed74.2
96
K%43.6%
0 -17 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
50
Arm Runs0.0 · RF
Small sample
Range Runs-0.1 · RF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.2 · RF
21
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-09-26
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.3% · rebadged research
60
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.9% · rebadged research
63
Correct Decisions69.2% · rebadged research
80
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.304 · borderline
23
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.284 · insufficient sample
36
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.284 · validated thin sample
35
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.339 · insufficient sample
20
Resists FastballwOBA 0.337 · validated
51
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.338 · validated
85
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
66
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

1 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Montes, Lazaro · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.302 0.313 2026-09-26: 0.313 2026-09-26 2026-09-26 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

18 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Montes, Lazaro · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 22% of plotted batted ballsPull 22%Center field third: 67% of plotted batted ballsCenter 67%Right field third: 11% of plotted batted ballsOppo 11% LF 331 CF 401 RF 326 2026-09-01 · field out · SL · popup · EV 85.6 / LA 68.02026-09-01 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 106.0 / LA 27.02026-09-01 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 98.7 / LA -6.02026-09-03 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 92.1 / LA 44.02026-09-03 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 81.1 / LA 23.02026-09-04 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 74.5 / LA 2.02026-09-04 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 74.3 / LA 6.02026-09-08 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 116.1 / LA 24.02026-09-08 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 74.1 / LA 4.02026-09-09 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 67.2 / LA 34.02026-09-11 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 102.2 / LA 16.02026-09-11 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.0 / LA 53.02026-09-11 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 110.8 / LA 31.02026-09-18 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 94.9 / LA 61.02026-09-18 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 104.9 / LA 15.02026-09-22 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 96.8 / LA 54.02026-09-22 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 92.8 / LA 55.02026-09-23 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 103.0 / LA 44.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Montes, Lazaro · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 50%50%Chase: 26%26%Whiff: 41%41%Zone contact: 71%71%Contact: 59%59%Hard hit: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
hitter
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.012
wOBA Δ+0.025
Sample55 PA
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances203----
Home Runs6----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3010.093 to 0.325+/- 0.116
ISO0.1210.020 to 0.195+/- 0.088
Barrel%4.2%0.2% to 5.1%+/- 2.5%
Hard-Hit%36.4%6.4% to 38.6%+/- 16.1%
K%29.9%10.5% to 40.6%+/- 15.0%
BB%8.3%0.6% to 11.3%+/- 5.3%
BABIP0.2960.143 to 0.354+/- 0.106
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

1 career PA

xwOBA0.001
K%1.9%
BB%0.6%
Barrel0.0%
vs RHP

10 career PA

xwOBA0.001
K%1.8%
BB%0.8%
Barrel0.0%