Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / HOU · 2026

Dezenzo, Zach

Young power bat with breakout ceiling

Primary
0.313 xwOBA
Range
0.214 to 0.350
Live Δ
yes
Team HOU Archetype Impact slugger Age 26 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
36
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
40
Defense1 metrics
25
Speed1 metrics
61
Plate skills10 metrics
44
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
xwOBA preseason0.295
xwOBA current pace0.248
xwOBA rolling p500.282
Observed weight27%
xwOBA
0.230 0.254 0.282 0.309 0.334
wOBA
0.211 0.240 0.273 0.306 0.336
ISO
0.076 0.099 0.125 0.151 0.174
K%
26.5% 28.9% 31.6% 34.2% 36.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.8%
51 -28 vs proj
Exit velocity84.9
18
Hard-hit%31.8%
23 -36 vs proj
xBA0.329
64
xSLG0.507
54
xwOBA0.248
9 -52 vs proj
BB%8.4%
50
Bat speed73.8
93
K%38.6%
1 -18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF
25
Arm Runs0.6 · LF
Small sample
Range Runs-1.2 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.9 · LF
61
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-09-26
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.9% · rebadged research
73
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 35.1% · rebadged research
3
Correct Decisions64.3% · rebadged research
30
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.258 · borderline
94
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · insufficient sample
54
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.276 · validated thin sample
62
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · insufficient sample
38
Resists FastballwOBA 0.363 · validated
15
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358 · validated
47
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
26
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Dezenzo, Zach · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.302 0.248 2026-09-12: 0.2482026-09-13: 0.2482026-09-14: 0.2482026-09-18: 0.2492026-09-19: 0.2492026-09-20: 0.2492026-09-21: 0.2492026-09-22: 0.2492026-09-23: 0.2492026-09-24: 0.2492026-09-25: 0.2492026-09-26: 0.248 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

26 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Dezenzo, Zach · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 8% of plotted batted ballsPull 8%Center field third: 65% of plotted batted ballsCenter 65%Right field third: 27% of plotted batted ballsOppo 27% LF 315 CF 409 RF 326 2026-05-06 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 59.4 / LA 16.02026-05-06 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 58.9 / LA -17.02026-05-06 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 84.9 / LA -7.02026-05-08 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.0 / LA 33.02026-05-08 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 104.0 / LA 32.02026-05-10 · field out · ST · popup · EV 61.8 / LA 50.02026-05-11 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.0 / LA 41.02026-05-12 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 104.8 / LA 13.02026-05-13 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 88.3 / LA 20.02026-05-13 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 73.1 / LA -9.02026-05-13 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 83.4 / LA 27.02026-05-15 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 85.5 / LA -7.02026-05-16 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 100.2 / LA 15.02026-05-16 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 85.4 / LA -11.02026-05-17 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 85.0 / LA 18.02026-05-17 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 69.4 / LA -26.02026-05-17 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 79.5 / LA 18.02026-05-18 · double play · SL · line_drive · EV 58.2 / LA 15.02026-05-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 84.5 / LA 28.02026-05-18 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.3 / LA -5.02026-05-19 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 94.2 / LA 52.02026-05-19 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.8 / LA 33.02026-05-20 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 70.4 / LA -41.02026-05-23 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 106.0 / LA 18.02026-05-26 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 90.8 / LA 21.02026-07-31 · field out · FA · ground_ball · EV 83.9 / LA -16.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Dezenzo, Zach · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 48%48%Chase: 34%34%Whiff: 35%35%Zone contact: 74%74%Contact: 65%65%Hard hit: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
hitter
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.065
wOBA Δ-0.040
Sample83 PA
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances269----
Home Runs7----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3130.214 to 0.350+/- 0.068
ISO0.1550.058 to 0.189+/- 0.066
Barrel%6.8%2.6% to 8.3%+/- 2.9%
Hard-Hit%40.2%26.0% to 46.7%+/- 10.4%
K%29.2%20.0% to 32.9%+/- 6.4%
BB%8.0%4.0% to 10.9%+/- 3.4%
BABIP0.3070.229 to 0.374+/- 0.073
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

38 career PA

xwOBA0.131
K%13.9%
BB%4.8%
Barrel3.5%
vs RHP

154 career PA

xwOBA0.132
K%14.1%
BB%3.9%
Barrel3.3%