Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / CLE · 2026
Manzardo, Kyle
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team CLE
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.318 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.316 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.317 |
| Observed weight | 48% |
xwOBA
0.290
0.303
0.317
0.331
0.344
wOBA
0.305
0.325
0.348
0.371
0.391
ISO
0.139
0.156
0.174
0.193
0.209
K%
26.9%
28.5%
30.3%
32.1%
33.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%8.9%
49
Barrel%7.4%
79
Bat speed68.8
38
Exit velocity89.1
56
Hard-hit%41.3%
56
K%35.1%
3
-35 vs proj
xBA0.378
90
xSLG0.661
87
xwOBA0.316
57
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 1B
27
Range Runs-0.6 · 1B
35
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.5 · 1B
11
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.6% · rebadged research
61
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.1% · rebadged research
50
Correct Decisions66.4% · rebadged research
52
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.316 · borderline
9
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.284 · insufficient sample
30
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.252 · validated thin sample
96
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.298 · insufficient sample
99
Resists FastballwOBA 0.342 · validated
45
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351 · validated
65
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
59
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
105 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.001 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.032 |
| Sample | 202 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 502 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 22 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.316 | 0.285 to 0.354 | +/- 0.035 |
| ISO | 0.188 | 0.138 to 0.259 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% | 6.6% | 4.4% to 8.7% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 42.3% | 35.7% to 48.3% | +/- 6.3% |
| K% | 24.1% | 20.8% to 31.2% | +/- 5.2% |
| BB% | 8.1% | 5.8% to 11.0% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.276 | 0.221 to 0.329 | +/- 0.054 |
vs LHP
135 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.216 |
| K% | 20.1% |
| BB% | 5.2% |
| Barrel | 4.6% |
vs RHP
621 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.240 |
| K% | 19.4% |
| BB% | 6.3% |
| Barrel | 5.6% |