Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / STL · 2026
Bernal, Leo
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team STL
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 22
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
90
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.247 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.344 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.276 |
| Observed weight | 30% |
xwOBA
0.223
0.248
0.276
0.304
0.329
wOBA
0.298
0.328
0.361
0.395
0.425
ISO
0.077
0.110
0.146
0.182
0.215
K%
13.3%
17.6%
22.3%
27.1%
31.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.4%
74
+22 vs proj
Exit velocity92.6
96
Hard-hit%56.7%
99
+55 vs proj
xBA0.371
94
xSLG0.641
88
xwOBA0.344
89
+37 vs proj
BB%5.3%
17
-33 vs proj
Bat speed72.2
82
K%23.4%
48
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.4 · C
69
Catcher Throwing1.0 · C
72
Framing Runs1.3 · C
67
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · C
25
Pop Time1.9 · C
85
Range Runs-0.5 · C
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.2 · C
21
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.3% · rebadged research
39
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.7% · rebadged research
66
Correct Decisions65.4% · rebadged research
43
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.297 · borderline
32
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.297 · insufficient sample
14
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.279 · validated thin sample
54
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.344 · insufficient sample
15
Resists FastballwOBA 0.365 · validated
13
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.355 · validated
55
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
47
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
51 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.040 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.057 |
| Sample | 94 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 202 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.304 | 0.135 to 0.276 | +/- 0.070 |
| ISO | 0.152 | 0.044 to 0.236 | +/- 0.096 |
| Barrel% | 5.0% | 0.6% to 6.6% | +/- 3.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.9% | 14.6% to 42.7% | +/- 14.0% |
| K% | 23.0% | 7.8% to 33.2% | +/- 12.7% |
| BB% | 8.4% | 1.8% to 9.9% | +/- 4.1% |
| BABIP | 0.292 | 0.186 to 0.351 | +/- 0.082 |
vs LHP
0 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.1% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.3% |
vs RHP
3 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.1% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.4% |