Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Hitter projection / TEX · 2026
Osuna, Alejandro
On-base driven regular with stable floor
Team TEX
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 24
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
26
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.315 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.312 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.314 |
| Observed weight | 48% |
xwOBA
0.280
0.296
0.314
0.331
0.347
wOBA
0.312
0.332
0.354
0.377
0.397
ISO
0.064
0.080
0.097
0.115
0.131
K%
13.4%
15.2%
17.2%
19.2%
21.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.0%
4
-42 vs proj
Exit velocity86.7
31
Hard-hit%31.5%
19
-24 vs proj
xBA0.310
36
xSLG0.378
7
xwOBA0.312
56
-17 vs proj
BB%8.2%
45
-23 vs proj
Bat speed69.8
51
K%13.0%
94
+29 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-2.1 · LF
6
Arm Strength88.4 · LF
15
Outs Above Avg-6.0 · LF
1
Range Runs-5.8 · LF
4
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.5 · LF
81
SB Success Rate50.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.9% · rebadged research
47
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.7% · rebadged research
43
Correct Decisions66.1% · rebadged research
50
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.273 · borderline
80
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · insufficient sample
23
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.295 · validated thin sample
17
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.338 · insufficient sample
33
Resists FastballwOBA 0.310 · validated
93
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.372 · validated
19
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
44
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
95 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.020 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.022 |
| Sample | 207 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 294 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.332 | 0.266 to 0.371 | +/- 0.053 |
| ISO | 0.143 | 0.061 to 0.187 | +/- 0.063 |
| Barrel% | 4.8% | 2.1% to 6.6% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.3% | 29.1% to 43.1% | +/- 7.0% |
| K% | 20.1% | 13.9% to 27.7% | +/- 6.9% |
| BB% | 10.2% | 5.8% to 13.2% | +/- 3.7% |
| BABIP | 0.285 | 0.240 to 0.337 | +/- 0.048 |
vs LHP
15 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.134 |
| K% | 9.0% |
| BB% | 4.5% |
| Barrel | 1.6% |
vs RHP
173 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.154 |
| K% | 7.9% |
| BB% | 6.0% |
| Barrel | 2.1% |