Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / STL · 2026
Báez, Joshua
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team STL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 23
Status IL-10
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
76
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.266 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.303 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.278 |
| Observed weight | 33% |
xwOBA
0.211
0.243
0.278
0.313
0.345
wOBA
0.281
0.309
0.339
0.370
0.398
ISO
0.102
0.133
0.167
0.202
0.233
K%
15.3%
20.1%
25.4%
30.7%
35.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.4%
84
+48 vs proj
Exit velocity92.1
94
Hard-hit%47.1%
87
+49 vs proj
xBA0.317
48
xSLG0.666
92
xwOBA0.303
51
BB%3.7%
7
-31 vs proj
Bat speed75.8
99
K%30.6%
15
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength97.0 · LF
73
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · LF
13
Arm Runs-0.1 · LF
Small sample
Range Runs-2.4 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts7.0 · LF
54
Sprint Speed29.2 · LF
92
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 57.1% · rebadged research
13
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.1% · rebadged research
23
Correct Decisions63.1% · rebadged research
22
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.314 · borderline
15
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.292 · insufficient sample
20
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.294 · validated thin sample
21
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.320 · insufficient sample
63
Resists FastballwOBA 0.353 · validated
26
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.355 · validated
54
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline90
10
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
50 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.007 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.043 |
| Sample | 108 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 200 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.296 | 0.133 to 0.326 | +/- 0.097 |
| ISO | 0.143 | 0.032 to 0.220 | +/- 0.094 |
| Barrel% | 4.0% | 0.2% to 5.9% | +/- 2.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 35.8% | 12.2% to 37.9% | +/- 12.8% |
| K% | 26.6% | 7.1% to 36.7% | +/- 14.8% |
| BB% | 7.5% | 1.3% to 9.5% | +/- 4.1% |
| BABIP | 0.288 | 0.178 to 0.358 | +/- 0.090 |
vs LHP
1 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.1% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
2 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.1% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |