Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / STL · 2026
Saggese, Thomas
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team STL
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 24
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.284 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.274 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.281 |
| Observed weight | 29% |
xwOBA
0.250
0.265
0.281
0.297
0.311
wOBA
0.204
0.233
0.264
0.296
0.324
ISO
0.090
0.109
0.130
0.151
0.170
K%
23.1%
25.1%
27.3%
29.5%
31.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%6.7%
26
Barrel%5.6%
58
Bat speed70.3
61
Exit velocity90.2
74
Hard-hit%43.6%
66
+16 vs proj
K%30.3%
12
-25 vs proj
xBA0.304
32
xSLG0.541
60
xwOBA0.274
20
-21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
45
Arm Runs0.4 · LF
Limited
Range Runs-0.1 · LF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.6 · LF
58
SB Success Rate0.0% · LF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.2% · rebadged research
17
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.0% · rebadged research
71
Correct Decisions63.5% · rebadged research
25
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.277 · borderline
70
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.277 · insufficient sample
46
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.267 · validated thin sample
76
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.318 · insufficient sample
86
Resists FastballwOBA 0.304 · validated
96
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.350 · validated
69
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
27
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
53 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.027 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.037 |
| Sample | 89 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 356 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.301 | 0.268 to 0.339 | +/- 0.035 |
| ISO | 0.156 | 0.082 to 0.189 | +/- 0.054 |
| Barrel% | 5.3% | 2.0% to 6.8% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 40.2% | 32.0% to 47.8% | +/- 7.9% |
| K% | 24.3% | 20.0% to 30.6% | +/- 5.3% |
| BB% | 6.0% | 3.6% to 9.2% | +/- 2.8% |
| BABIP | 0.321 | 0.254 to 0.366 | +/- 0.056 |
vs LHP
88 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.169 |
| K% | 16.1% |
| BB% | 3.4% |
| Barrel | 2.9% |
vs RHP
281 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.163 |
| K% | 15.9% |
| BB% | 3.4% |
| Barrel | 2.4% |