Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / STL · 2026

Saggese, Thomas

Young power bat with breakout ceiling

Primary
0.301 xwOBA
Range
0.268 to 0.339
Live Δ
yes
Team STL Archetype Impact slugger Age 24 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
77
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
65
Defense4 metrics
66
Speed2 metrics
59
Plate skills10 metrics
61
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
xwOBA preseason0.284
xwOBA current pace0.313
xwOBA rolling p500.297
Observed weight46%
xwOBA
0.269 0.282 0.297 0.312 0.325
wOBA
0.271 0.292 0.315 0.338 0.359
ISO
0.106 0.122 0.139 0.156 0.171
K%
23.1% 24.8% 26.6% 28.4% 30.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.5%
76 +19 vs proj
Exit velocity91.2
89
Hard-hit%45.8%
83 +25 vs proj
xBA0.344
78
xSLG0.582
76
xwOBA0.313
61
BB%7.1%
33
Bat speed70.6
65
K%27.2%
27 -16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.4 · SS
86
Arm Strength87.1 · SS
49
Outs Above Avg1.0 · SS
73
Range Runs0.3 · SS
58
Baserunning · percentile strip
SB Success Rate80.0% · SS
48
Sprint Speed28.2 · SS
71
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-09-26
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.7% · rebadged research
35
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.3% · rebadged research
85
Correct Decisions66.3% · rebadged research
51
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.276 · borderline
77
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.269 · insufficient sample
79
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.276 · validated thin sample
60
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.326 · insufficient sample
45
Resists FastballwOBA 0.332 · validated
62
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.353 · validated
62
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
56
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Saggese, Thomas · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.302 0.313 2026-09-12: 0.3122026-09-13: 0.3172026-09-14: 0.3142026-09-18: 0.3192026-09-19: 0.3172026-09-20: 0.3172026-09-21: 0.3142026-09-22: 0.3142026-09-23: 0.3182026-09-24: 0.3182026-09-25: 0.3182026-09-26: 0.313 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Thomas Saggese's tools (82) outpace production (63) by 19 points. Primary finding: groundball-heavy approach with the raw power to drive the ball — leaving fly-ball damage on the table. Most actionable fix: elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too Low
+9.0° Current 7° → Target 16°

Elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

99 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Saggese, Thomas · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 12% of plotted batted ballsPull 12%Center field third: 66% of plotted batted ballsCenter 66%Right field third: 22% of plotted batted ballsOppo 22% LF 336 CF 400 RF 335 2026-03-18 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 96.6 / LA -3.02026-03-18 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 101.7 / LA 6.02026-03-20 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.7 / LA 0.02026-03-20 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 100.5 / LA 20.02026-03-21 · home run · CU · line_drive · EV 104.5 / LA 22.02026-03-21 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 100.3 / LA 0.02026-03-21 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 89.1 / LA 2.02026-03-29 · field out · SI · popup · EV 95.9 / LA 71.02026-03-29 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 104.9 / LA 21.02026-04-01 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 84.0 / LA -5.02026-04-01 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 84.5 / LA 37.02026-04-03 · single · SI · fly_ball · EV 67.2 / LA 35.02026-04-03 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 89.8 / LA 38.02026-04-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 56.7 / LA 5.02026-04-04 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 72.0 / LA -16.02026-04-04 · field out · CU · popup · EV 83.2 / LA 71.02026-04-05 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 85.6 / LA 39.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.1 / LA 34.02026-04-06 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.7 / LA 57.02026-04-06 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 105.0 / LA 17.02026-04-06 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 82.5 / LA 7.02026-04-07 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.9 / LA -11.02026-04-07 · grounded into double play · ST · ground_ball · EV 72.4 / LA -6.02026-04-07 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 101.6 / LA 17.02026-04-08 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 107.3 / LA 6.02026-04-08 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 92.0 / LA -9.02026-04-08 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 85.4 / LA 24.02026-04-10 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 92.4 / LA 18.02026-04-10 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 92.5 / LA 6.02026-04-11 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 103.1 / LA 16.02026-04-11 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 106.6 / LA 15.02026-04-12 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 60.5 / LA -1.02026-04-12 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 69.7 / LA 2.02026-04-12 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 91.9 / LA -25.02026-04-13 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 90.9 / LA 31.02026-04-14 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 84.9 / LA -9.02026-04-20 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 99.8 / LA 23.02026-04-20 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 109.7 / LA -10.02026-04-22 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 85.7 / LA -38.02026-04-22 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.8 / LA -9.02026-04-27 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 94.5 / LA -30.02026-05-09 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 103.3 / LA 23.02026-05-09 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 99.5 / LA 23.02026-05-09 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.5 / LA -10.02026-05-10 · field out · KC · fly_ball · EV 104.5 / LA 33.02026-05-10 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 48.4 / LA -55.02026-05-16 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 55.7 / LA 28.02026-05-16 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 84.8 / LA 21.02026-05-16 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 97.8 / LA 18.02026-05-17 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 102.7 / LA -5.02026-05-17 · force out · ST · ground_ball · EV 75.4 / LA 0.02026-05-17 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 84.2 / LA 15.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · popup · EV 74.7 / LA 58.02026-08-30 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 73.4 / LA -11.02026-08-30 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 79.0 / LA 18.02026-08-30 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 103.2 / LA 12.02026-08-30 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 71.2 / LA 17.02026-09-01 · field out · EP · fly_ball · EV 94.6 / LA 38.02026-09-01 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.3 / LA 35.02026-09-01 · sac fly · CU · fly_ball · EV 87.4 / LA 41.02026-09-01 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 104.8 / LA 30.02026-09-02 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 104.7 / LA 24.02026-09-02 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 67.7 / LA -22.02026-09-02 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.9 / LA 57.02026-09-03 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 59.3 / LA -29.02026-09-03 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.1 / LA 2.02026-09-04 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 82.1 / LA 59.02026-09-04 · double · SL · ground_ball · EV 92.5 / LA -6.02026-09-05 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.8 / LA -5.02026-09-05 · sac fly · SI · line_drive · EV 93.3 / LA 23.02026-09-05 · double · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.6 / LA -8.02026-09-06 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 102.3 / LA 20.02026-09-06 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 87.0 / LA 12.02026-09-06 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 80.5 / LA 0.02026-09-07 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 91.5 / LA 35.02026-09-07 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.0 / LA -4.02026-09-07 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 95.5 / LA 10.02026-09-07 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 90.0 / LA 29.02026-09-08 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 105.9 / LA 4.02026-09-08 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 109.4 / LA 5.02026-09-08 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 92.2 / LA -24.02026-09-09 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 92.4 / LA 4.02026-09-09 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.1 / LA 4.02026-09-11 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 90.4 / LA 26.02026-09-11 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 92.7 / LA 16.02026-09-11 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.6 / LA 40.02026-09-11 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball · EV 79.4 / LA 3.02026-09-12 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 94.9 / LA 27.02026-09-12 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 100.6 / LA 10.02026-09-12 · single · SI · fly_ball · EV 73.2 / LA 26.02026-09-13 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 107.1 / LA -25.02026-09-13 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 96.2 / LA 28.02026-09-18 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 92.4 / LA 43.02026-09-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.7 / LA 33.02026-09-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.8 / LA -11.02026-09-20 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 101.9 / LA 25.02026-09-22 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 85.1 / LA 19.02026-09-25 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 100.8 / LA 22.02026-09-25 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.1 / LA -9.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Saggese, Thomas · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 71.8 mph Hard swing rate 21% Whiff / swing 32% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Saggese, Thomas · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 48%48%Chase: 35%35%Whiff: 24%24%Zone contact: 84%84%Contact: 76%76%Hard hit: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.012
wOBA Δ+0.014
Sample184 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances356----
Home Runs6----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3010.268 to 0.339+/- 0.035
ISO0.1560.082 to 0.189+/- 0.054
Barrel%5.3%2.0% to 6.8%+/- 2.4%
Hard-Hit%40.2%32.0% to 47.8%+/- 7.9%
K%24.3%20.0% to 30.6%+/- 5.3%
BB%6.0%3.6% to 9.2%+/- 2.8%
BABIP0.3210.254 to 0.366+/- 0.056
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

88 career PA

xwOBA0.169
K%16.1%
BB%3.4%
Barrel2.9%
vs RHP

281 career PA

xwOBA0.163
K%15.9%
BB%3.4%
Barrel2.4%