Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / HOU · 2026
Matthews, Brice
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team HOU
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 24
Status IL-10
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
34
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.278 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.261 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.269 |
| Observed weight | 53% |
xwOBA
0.228
0.248
0.269
0.290
0.310
wOBA
0.274
0.292
0.312
0.332
0.349
ISO
0.105
0.127
0.150
0.174
0.195
K%
23.5%
26.5%
29.9%
33.3%
36.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.2%
56
-20 vs proj
Exit velocity83.6
10
Hard-hit%36.5%
41
xBA0.296
24
xSLG0.518
56
xwOBA0.261
14
-30 vs proj
BB%8.5%
51
+28 vs proj
Bat speed68.9
39
K%31.0%
14
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.5 · CF
67
Arm Strength93.8 · CF
53
Outs Above Avg2.0 · CF
88
Range Runs5.0 · CF
85
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts1.0 · CF
11
SB Success Rate50.0% · CF
4
Sprint Speed28.6 · CF
82
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.5% · rebadged research
83
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.9% · rebadged research
74
Correct Decisions71.2% · rebadged research
91
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.264 · borderline
91
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.266 · insufficient sample
86
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.254 · validated thin sample
94
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.314 · insufficient sample
79
Resists FastballwOBA 0.347 · validated
33
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.359 · validated
44
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
88
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
112 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.036 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.015 |
| Sample | 248 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 224 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.297 | 0.170 to 0.322 | +/- 0.076 |
| ISO | 0.168 | 0.070 to 0.251 | +/- 0.090 |
| Barrel% | 6.6% | 2.3% to 8.3% | +/- 3.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 38.2% | 19.6% to 49.6% | +/- 15.0% |
| K% | 31.4% | 14.3% to 40.4% | +/- 13.0% |
| BB% | 6.0% | 1.5% to 9.2% | +/- 3.9% |
| BABIP | 0.276 | 0.196 to 0.320 | +/- 0.062 |
vs LHP
11 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.050 |
| K% | 6.7% |
| BB% | 0.9% |
| Barrel | 1.8% |
vs RHP
36 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.050 |
| K% | 6.9% |
| BB% | 0.7% |
| Barrel | 2.3% |