Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / WSH · 2026
Ortiz, Abimelec
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team WSH
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 24
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
49
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.252 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.276 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.261 |
| Observed weight | 38% |
xwOBA
0.207
0.233
0.261
0.290
0.315
wOBA
0.220
0.243
0.269
0.295
0.318
ISO
0.080
0.106
0.134
0.163
0.188
K%
16.8%
20.9%
25.4%
29.9%
34.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.2%
56
Exit velocity89.7
74
Hard-hit%38.0%
49
xBA0.298
27
xSLG0.542
64
xwOBA0.276
24
-28 vs proj
BB%5.2%
16
-34 vs proj
Bat speed73.8
93
K%25.9%
33
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 1B
47
Range Runs-0.5 · 1B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.4 · 1B
9
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.1% · rebadged research
15
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.7% · rebadged research
66
Correct Decisions61.6% · rebadged research
13
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.275 · borderline
79
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.260 · insufficient sample
92
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.280 · validated thin sample
45
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.292 · insufficient sample
97
Resists FastballwOBA 0.341 · validated
42
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.348 · validated
72
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
25
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
68 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.027 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.035 |
| Sample | 135 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 201 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.304 | 0.124 to 0.287 | +/- 0.082 |
| ISO | 0.137 | 0.039 to 0.206 | +/- 0.083 |
| Barrel% | 4.9% | 0.5% to 6.3% | +/- 2.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.2% | 12.5% to 40.5% | +/- 14.0% |
| K% | 25.1% | 8.5% to 35.5% | +/- 13.5% |
| BB% | 8.3% | 1.0% to 9.6% | +/- 4.3% |
| BABIP | 0.292 | 0.184 to 0.346 | +/- 0.081 |
vs LHP
1 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.4% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.3% |
vs RHP
1 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.4% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.5% |