Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / COL · 2026

Thompson, Sterlin

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.288 xwOBA
Range
0.062 to 0.334
Live Δ
yes
Team COL Archetype Ground-ball contact Age 25 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
48
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
48
Defense1 metrics
25
Speed1 metrics
53
Plate skills10 metrics
66
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
xwOBA preseason0.253
xwOBA current pace0.295
xwOBA rolling p500.264
Observed weight26%
xwOBA
0.162 0.210 0.264 0.318 0.366
wOBA
0.239 0.271 0.306 0.342 0.374
ISO
0.028 0.063 0.101 0.140 0.175
K%
15.9% 21.0% 26.7% 32.3% 37.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.9%
34
Exit velocity86.6
36
Hard-hit%43.8%
76 +51 vs proj
xBA0.314
46
xSLG0.513
55
xwOBA0.295
41
BB%6.5%
28
Bat speed73.5
92
K%27.3%
26
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF
25
Arm Runs-0.2 · LF
Small sample
Range Runs-0.8 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.6 · DH
53
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-09-26
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.9% · rebadged research
67
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 13.4% · rebadged research
98
Correct Decisions73.3% · rebadged research
97
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.291 · borderline
43
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · insufficient sample
75
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.279 · validated thin sample
51
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.331 · insufficient sample
35
Resists FastballwOBA 0.325 · validated
76
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.370 · validated
24
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline116
97
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Thompson, Sterlin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.302 0.295 2026-09-12: 0.2952026-09-13: 0.2952026-09-14: 0.2952026-09-18: 0.2952026-09-19: 0.2952026-09-20: 0.2952026-09-21: 0.2952026-09-22: 0.2952026-09-23: 0.2952026-09-24: 0.2952026-09-25: 0.2952026-09-26: 0.295 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

31 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Thompson, Sterlin · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 10% of plotted batted ballsPull 10%Center field third: 84% of plotted batted ballsCenter 84%Right field third: 6% of plotted batted ballsOppo 6% LF 347 CF 415 RF 350 2026-05-15 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 81.9 / LA -12.02026-05-16 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 95.8 / LA -4.02026-05-16 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 81.0 / LA -8.02026-05-18 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 98.8 / LA 23.02026-05-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.2 / LA -7.02026-05-18 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 65.1 / LA 0.02026-05-18 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 104.7 / LA 0.02026-05-22 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 93.8 / LA 21.02026-05-22 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 95.0 / LA 36.02026-05-22 · field out · SV · fly_ball · EV 82.9 / LA 54.02026-05-23 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 71.0 / LA -39.02026-05-23 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 75.9 / LA 7.02026-05-23 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 88.6 / LA -16.02026-05-24 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 107.0 / LA -2.02026-05-24 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 74.7 / LA 4.02026-05-24 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 57.7 / LA 0.02026-05-26 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 65.5 / LA 14.02026-05-26 · single · EP · fly_ball · EV 73.2 / LA 44.02026-05-27 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 109.8 / LA -3.02026-05-27 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 94.1 / LA -8.02026-05-31 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 80.0 / LA 12.02026-06-01 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 101.3 / LA 21.02026-06-01 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 107.9 / LA 11.02026-06-01 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 86.6 / LA 20.02026-06-05 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 74.8 / LA 20.02026-06-05 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 64.9 / LA -22.02026-06-05 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.9 / LA 1.02026-06-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.3 / LA -27.02026-06-07 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 110.2 / LA -11.02026-06-20 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 32.6 / LA -49.02026-06-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.5 / LA 37.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Thompson, Sterlin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 45%45%Chase: 29%29%Whiff: 28%28%Zone contact: 83%83%Contact: 72%72%Hard hit: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
hitter
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.007
wOBA Δ+0.018
Sample77 PA
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances202----
Home Runs6----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.2880.062 to 0.334+/- 0.136
ISO0.1110.015 to 0.210+/- 0.097
Barrel%3.1%0.2% to 5.2%+/- 2.5%
Hard-Hit%32.7%6.0% to 39.5%+/- 16.8%
K%27.9%9.0% to 37.7%+/- 14.3%
BB%7.0%0.5% to 9.3%+/- 4.4%
BABIP0.2920.117 to 0.371+/- 0.127
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

0 career PA

xwOBA0.001
K%1.1%
BB%0.0%
Barrel0.0%
vs RHP

8 career PA

xwOBA0.001
K%1.0%
BB%0.0%
Barrel0.0%