Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / HOU · 2026
Loperfido, Joey
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team HOU
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status Out / inactive
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
46
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.281 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.294 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.286 |
| Observed weight | 38% |
xwOBA
0.253
0.269
0.286
0.303
0.319
wOBA
0.278
0.302
0.330
0.357
0.382
ISO
0.108
0.127
0.149
0.170
0.190
K%
22.3%
24.3%
26.5%
28.7%
30.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.7%
32
Exit velocity88.5
56
Hard-hit%35.8%
38
xBA0.332
67
xSLG0.484
45
xwOBA0.294
40
BB%11.9%
87
+58 vs proj
Bat speed69.4
46
K%26.1%
32
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.4 · LF
45
Arm Strength85.3 · LF
2
Outs Above Avg2.0 · LF
88
Range Runs0.8 · LF
56
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts1.0 · LF
11
Sprint Speed28.3 · LF
75
SB Success Rate0.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.7% · rebadged research
30
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.4% · rebadged research
28
Correct Decisions63.8% · rebadged research
27
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.281 · borderline
69
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · insufficient sample
50
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.283 · validated thin sample
40
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.317 · insufficient sample
70
Resists FastballwOBA 0.353 · validated
25
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358 · validated
46
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
24
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
58 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.007 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.029 |
| Sample | 134 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 284 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 8 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.301 | 0.259 to 0.344 | +/- 0.043 |
| ISO | 0.173 | 0.103 to 0.228 | +/- 0.063 |
| Barrel% | 4.2% | 1.5% to 6.3% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 38.3% | 29.4% to 45.9% | +/- 8.3% |
| K% | 27.0% | 21.1% to 33.3% | +/- 6.1% |
| BB% | 6.6% | 4.1% to 9.7% | +/- 2.8% |
| BABIP | 0.334 | 0.234 to 0.398 | +/- 0.082 |
vs LHP
80 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.153 |
| K% | 17.7% |
| BB% | 3.5% |
| Barrel | 1.3% |
vs RHP
312 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.167 |
| K% | 18.7% |
| BB% | 3.6% |
| Barrel | 2.0% |