Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / HOU · 2026
Loperfido, Joey
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team HOU
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.281 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.279 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.280 |
| Observed weight | 26% |
xwOBA
0.244
0.261
0.280
0.299
0.316
wOBA
0.311
0.344
0.381
0.418
0.451
ISO
0.101
0.123
0.148
0.173
0.195
K%
22.2%
24.5%
27.0%
29.6%
31.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%10.1%
67
+41 vs proj
Barrel%2.5%
19
-18 vs proj
Bat speed70.1
56
Exit velocity89.9
69
Hard-hit%39.6%
48
K%27.8%
23
xBA0.345
70
xSLG0.448
30
xwOBA0.279
23
-18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg2.0 · LF
90
Arm Runs-0.9 · LF
Limited
Range Runs0.4 · LF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts1.0 · LF
17
Sprint Speed28.6 · LF
86
SB Success Rate0.0% · LF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.8% · rebadged research
37
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.9% · rebadged research
41
Correct Decisions64.1% · rebadged research
30
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.279 · borderline
68
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.277 · insufficient sample
48
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.275 · validated thin sample
49
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.323 · insufficient sample
77
Resists FastballwOBA 0.362 · validated
15
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358 · validated
47
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
34
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
48 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.022 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.080 |
| Sample | 79 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 284 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 8 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.301 | 0.259 to 0.344 | +/- 0.043 |
| ISO | 0.173 | 0.103 to 0.228 | +/- 0.063 |
| Barrel% | 4.2% | 1.5% to 6.3% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 38.3% | 29.4% to 45.9% | +/- 8.3% |
| K% | 27.0% | 21.1% to 33.3% | +/- 6.1% |
| BB% | 6.6% | 4.1% to 9.7% | +/- 2.8% |
| BABIP | 0.334 | 0.234 to 0.398 | +/- 0.082 |
vs LHP
80 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.153 |
| K% | 17.7% |
| BB% | 3.5% |
| Barrel | 1.3% |
vs RHP
312 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.167 |
| K% | 18.7% |
| BB% | 3.6% |
| Barrel | 2.0% |