Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / PIT · 2026
Gonzalez, Jacob
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team PIT
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 24
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
44
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.248 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.303 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.276 |
| Observed weight | 51% |
xwOBA
0.232
0.253
0.276
0.299
0.319
wOBA
0.245
0.263
0.283
0.304
0.322
ISO
0.078
0.100
0.125
0.150
0.173
K%
13.4%
16.8%
20.6%
24.4%
27.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.1%
25
Exit velocity87.5
46
Hard-hit%37.7%
47
xBA0.315
47
xSLG0.494
49
xwOBA0.303
51
BB%4.9%
13
-24 vs proj
Bat speed68.8
38
K%18.7%
74
+39 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength87.3 · 1B
53
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 1B
80
Range Runs-1.8 · 1B
34
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.5 · 1B
26
SB Success Rate66.7% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 57.9% · rebadged research
15
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.1% · rebadged research
49
Correct Decisions64.7% · rebadged research
34
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.299 · borderline
29
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.289 · insufficient sample
26
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.292 · validated thin sample
22
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.290 · insufficient sample
98
Resists FastballwOBA 0.348 · validated
31
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.382 · validated
10
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline94
19
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
83 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.007 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.013 |
| Sample | 225 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 202 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.296 | 0.123 to 0.280 | +/- 0.078 |
| ISO | 0.124 | 0.019 to 0.201 | +/- 0.091 |
| Barrel% | 3.5% | 0.2% to 4.9% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 35.7% | 11.3% to 38.4% | +/- 13.5% |
| K% | 25.4% | 7.4% to 35.7% | +/- 14.2% |
| BB% | 7.5% | 1.1% to 9.1% | +/- 4.0% |
| BABIP | 0.308 | 0.188 to 0.377 | +/- 0.095 |
vs LHP
1 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.1% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
2 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.1% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |