Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / AZ · 2026
Tawa, Tim
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team AZ
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
72
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.298 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.315 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.309 |
| Observed weight | 62% |
xwOBA
0.279
0.293
0.309
0.324
0.338
wOBA
0.310
0.325
0.342
0.359
0.374
ISO
0.130
0.144
0.160
0.176
0.191
K%
21.4%
22.9%
24.4%
26.0%
27.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.9%
80
+20 vs proj
Exit velocity88.5
58
Hard-hit%45.0%
81
+16 vs proj
xBA0.338
73
xSLG0.580
75
xwOBA0.315
63
BB%8.0%
44
Bat speed70.0
55
K%24.3%
43
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.8 · 1B
8
Arm Strength88.9 · 1B
65
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 1B
27
Range Runs1.5 · 1B
70
Baserunning · percentile strip
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
93
Sprint Speed27.6 · 1B
53
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.8% · rebadged research
31
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.9% · rebadged research
63
Correct Decisions64.1% · rebadged research
28
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
38
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.273 · borderline
83
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · insufficient sample
62
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.314 · validated thin sample
5
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.332 · insufficient sample
32
Resists FastballwOBA 0.321 · validated
82
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.380 · validated
12
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
155 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.007 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.034 |
| Sample | 362 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 313 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.308 | 0.218 to 0.333 | +/- 0.057 |
| ISO | 0.173 | 0.073 to 0.213 | +/- 0.070 |
| Barrel% | 5.5% | 2.1% to 8.0% | +/- 3.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 41.4% | 30.1% to 49.9% | +/- 9.9% |
| K% | 26.2% | 19.3% to 31.8% | +/- 6.3% |
| BB% | 8.6% | 3.9% to 10.9% | +/- 3.5% |
| BABIP | 0.283 | 0.218 to 0.327 | +/- 0.055 |
vs LHP
92 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.139 |
| K% | 13.5% |
| BB% | 4.8% |
| Barrel | 2.4% |
vs RHP
159 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.138 |
| K% | 13.6% |
| BB% | 4.7% |
| Barrel | 3.1% |