Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / AZ · 2026
Tawa, Tim
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team AZ
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status Out / inactive
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.298 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.259 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.287 |
| Observed weight | 29% |
xwOBA
0.243
0.264
0.287
0.310
0.331
wOBA
0.323
0.355
0.390
0.424
0.456
ISO
0.094
0.118
0.144
0.171
0.195
K%
19.2%
21.5%
24.0%
26.5%
28.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%11.2%
75
+30 vs proj
Barrel%1.1%
7
-49 vs proj
Bat speed68.4
33
Exit velocity86.6
28
Hard-hit%38.6%
45
K%22.5%
47
+17 vs proj
xBA0.278
15
xSLG0.366
8
xwOBA0.259
12
-36 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
45
Arm Runs-0.2 · LF
Limited
Range Runs0.7 · LF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.6 · LF
58
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.8% · rebadged research
38
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.1% · rebadged research
83
Correct Decisions65.4% · rebadged research
43
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.265 · borderline
88
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.282 · insufficient sample
35
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.280 · validated thin sample
37
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.332 · insufficient sample
49
Resists FastballwOBA 0.321 · validated
83
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.364 · validated
31
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
56
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
59 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.048 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.082 |
| Sample | 89 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 313 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.308 | 0.218 to 0.333 | +/- 0.057 |
| ISO | 0.173 | 0.073 to 0.213 | +/- 0.070 |
| Barrel% | 5.5% | 2.1% to 8.0% | +/- 3.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 41.4% | 30.1% to 49.9% | +/- 9.9% |
| K% | 26.2% | 19.3% to 31.8% | +/- 6.3% |
| BB% | 8.6% | 3.9% to 10.9% | +/- 3.5% |
| BABIP | 0.283 | 0.218 to 0.327 | +/- 0.055 |
vs LHP
92 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.139 |
| K% | 13.5% |
| BB% | 4.8% |
| Barrel | 2.4% |
vs RHP
159 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.138 |
| K% | 13.6% |
| BB% | 4.7% |
| Barrel | 3.1% |