Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / AZ · 2026
None
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team AZ
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 24
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.245 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.345 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.255 |
| Observed weight | 10% |
xwOBA
0.190
0.221
0.255
0.289
0.320
wOBA
0.317
0.377
0.444
0.511
0.571
ISO
0.071
0.101
0.135
0.169
0.200
K%
12.7%
18.6%
25.3%
31.9%
37.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · LF
Limited
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF · small sample regression applied
67
Regression applied
Range Runs-0.1 · LF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.2 · LF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.1% · rebadged research
78
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.0% · rebadged research
52
Correct Decisions69.2% · rebadged research
79
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.289 · borderline
39
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · insufficient sample
53
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.281 · validated thin sample
36
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · insufficient sample
30
Resists FastballwOBA 0.369 · validated
11
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.372 · validated
19
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
74
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No chart yet
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
14 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 204 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.301 | 0.137 to 0.278 | +/- 0.071 |
| ISO | 0.139 | 0.059 to 0.200 | +/- 0.071 |
| Barrel% | 4.4% | 0.6% to 6.5% | +/- 2.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 38.4% | 14.4% to 40.3% | +/- 13.0% |
| K% | 25.9% | 9.0% to 37.0% | +/- 14.0% |
| BB% | 6.7% | 1.5% to 10.0% | +/- 4.3% |
| BABIP | 0.304 | 0.183 to 0.364 | +/- 0.090 |
vs LHP
3 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.9% |
| BB% | 0.5% |
| Barrel | 0.5% |
vs RHP
9 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 1.0% |
| BB% | 0.4% |
| Barrel | 0.4% |