Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 17 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / LAA · 2026

Guzman, Denzer

Young power bat with breakout ceiling

Primary
0.275 xwOBA
Range
0.113 to 0.307
Live Δ
--
Team LAA Archetype Impact slugger Age 22 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-17
64
Offense
percentile
Defense1 metrics
61
Plate skills6 metrics
64
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-17
xwOBA preseason0.228
xwOBA current pace0.259
xwOBA rolling p500.231
Observed weight12%
xwOBA
0.144 0.186 0.231 0.277 0.318
wOBA
0.233 0.287 0.346 0.406 0.459
ISO
0.031 0.067 0.107 0.148 0.184
K%
18.2% 23.6% 29.7% 35.7% 41.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-17
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
61 Regression applied
Range Runs-0.3 · 3B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.2 · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-17
Avoids Bad ChasesST 50.0% · rebadged research
5
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 0.0% · rebadged research
99
Correct Decisions75.0% · rebadged research
97
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.291 · borderline
37
Resists FastballwOBA 0.335 · validated
60
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
88
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

0 snapshots
No chart yet

No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

26 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026, 2025). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Guzman, Denzer · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 12% of plotted batted ballsPull 12%Center field third: 77% of plotted batted ballsCenter 77%Right field third: 12% of plotted batted ballsOppo 12% LF 347 CF 396 RF 350 2026-03-18 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 109.7 / LA -2.02026-03-18 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 111.6 / LA 9.02026-03-18 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.6 / LA 31.02026-06-15 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 103.6 / LA -9.02026-06-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.7 / LA 32.02026-06-15 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.8 / LA -13.02025-09-13 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 95.1 / LA -20.02025-09-14 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.5 / LA -3.02025-09-14 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 73.8 / LA 26.02025-09-16 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.9 / LA 32.02025-09-18 · force out · FC · ground_ball · EV 78.2 / LA -2.02025-09-19 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.9 / LA 28.02025-09-19 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 100.3 / LA 17.02025-09-20 · field out · KC · popup · EV 77.1 / LA 68.02025-09-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 76.8 / LA -12.02025-09-20 · field out · KC · fly_ball · EV 101.0 / LA 33.02025-09-21 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 99.1 / LA -16.02025-09-21 · field out · FC · popup · EV 52.7 / LA 74.02025-09-25 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 106.2 / LA 5.02025-09-25 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 88.0 / LA 48.02025-09-26 · field out · ST · popup · EV 70.3 / LA 60.02025-09-26 · double · CH · ground_ball · EV 100.7 / LA 6.02025-09-26 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 77.8 / LA 20.02025-09-27 · field out · FF · popup · EV 63.5 / LA 81.02025-09-28 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 71.4 / LA 22.02025-09-28 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.4 / LA 49.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Guzman, Denzer · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 47%47%Chase: 35%35%Whiff: 24%24%Zone contact: 86%86%Contact: 76%76%Hard hit: 48%48% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
hitter
Live context

Current-season signal

No Live State delta is available for this player yet.

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances222----
Home Runs8----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.2750.113 to 0.307+/- 0.097
ISO0.1480.047 to 0.219+/- 0.086
Barrel%5.2%0.8% to 7.2%+/- 3.2%
Hard-Hit%36.1%16.7% to 45.3%+/- 14.3%
K%30.8%16.5% to 42.4%+/- 13.0%
BB%5.7%0.5% to 9.5%+/- 4.5%
BABIP0.2840.171 to 0.340+/- 0.084
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

11 career PA

xwOBA0.033
K%8.1%
BB%0.4%
Barrel1.0%
vs RHP

40 career PA

xwOBA0.033
K%8.6%
BB%0.4%
Barrel1.1%