Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / MIA · 2026
Mack, Joe
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIA
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 24
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
50
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.274 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.292 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.285 |
| Observed weight | 60% |
xwOBA
0.243
0.263
0.285
0.307
0.327
wOBA
0.271
0.286
0.303
0.320
0.336
ISO
0.119
0.134
0.151
0.168
0.184
K%
19.4%
22.1%
25.1%
28.2%
30.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.7%
63
+20 vs proj
Exit velocity87.5
45
Hard-hit%38.2%
49
xBA0.309
39
xSLG0.543
64
xwOBA0.292
37
BB%5.7%
20
-35 vs proj
Bat speed71.8
77
K%24.6%
40
+16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.2 · C
61
Catcher Throwing5.2 · C
100
Framing Runs5.1 · C
88
Pop Time1.9 · C
85
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.1 · C
19
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.3% · rebadged research
70
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.7% · rebadged research
56
Correct Decisions70.6% · rebadged research
89
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.289 · borderline
51
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.261 · insufficient sample
90
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.253 · validated thin sample
94
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · insufficient sample
19
Resists FastballwOBA 0.324 · validated
77
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358 · validated
46
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
70
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
132 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.004 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.015 |
| Sample | 333 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 200 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.289 | 0.139 to 0.326 | +/- 0.094 |
| ISO | 0.143 | 0.069 to 0.212 | +/- 0.071 |
| Barrel% | 4.4% | 0.2% to 6.6% | +/- 3.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.7% | 14.1% to 42.6% | +/- 14.3% |
| K% | 27.9% | 9.3% to 36.9% | +/- 13.8% |
| BB% | 8.8% | 2.0% to 9.7% | +/- 3.8% |
| BABIP | 0.289 | 0.187 to 0.357 | +/- 0.085 |
vs LHP
2 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.7% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
1 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.7% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |