Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / AZ · 2026
Lawlar, Jordan
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team AZ
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 24
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
54
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.246 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.311 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.272 |
| Observed weight | 41% |
xwOBA
0.219
0.244
0.272
0.300
0.326
wOBA
0.359
0.383
0.410
0.437
0.462
ISO
0.084
0.108
0.134
0.161
0.184
K%
20.1%
23.4%
27.0%
30.7%
34.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.6%
47
+19 vs proj
Exit velocity85.5
25
Hard-hit%33.3%
28
xBA0.362
89
xSLG0.585
77
xwOBA0.311
60
+50 vs proj
BB%6.0%
22
Bat speed65.2
8
K%27.8%
24
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.1 · CF
24
Arm Strength88.7 · CF
16
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · CF
25
Range Runs1.4 · CF
62
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts7.0 · CF
54
Sprint Speed28.7 · CF
84
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.4% · rebadged research
92
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.2% · rebadged research
85
Correct Decisions72.5% · rebadged research
95
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.252 · borderline
98
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · insufficient sample
48
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.312 · validated thin sample
6
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.328 · insufficient sample
42
Resists FastballwOBA 0.354 · validated
23
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.380 · validated
12
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline113
96
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
65 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.060 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.159 |
| Sample | 151 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 242 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.251 | 0.146 to 0.314 | +/- 0.084 |
| ISO | 0.115 | 0.057 to 0.216 | +/- 0.080 |
| Barrel% | 3.2% | 0.5% to 5.7% | +/- 2.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 32.3% | 18.0% to 41.5% | +/- 11.8% |
| K% | 25.7% | 16.6% to 39.3% | +/- 11.3% |
| BB% | 7.0% | 2.8% to 9.6% | +/- 3.4% |
| BABIP | 0.285 | 0.205 to 0.352 | +/- 0.074 |
vs LHP
55 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.080 |
| K% | 9.5% |
| BB% | 3.2% |
| Barrel | 0.9% |
vs RHP
71 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.075 |
| K% | 10.6% |
| BB% | 2.3% |
| Barrel | 0.8% |