Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / ATH · 2026
Muncy, Max
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team ATH
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 24
Status IL-10
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
67
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.281 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.288 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.285 |
| Observed weight | 58% |
xwOBA
0.256
0.269
0.285
0.300
0.314
wOBA
0.295
0.312
0.330
0.348
0.365
ISO
0.137
0.152
0.169
0.186
0.201
K%
26.5%
28.1%
29.9%
31.7%
33.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.6%
77
+22 vs proj
Exit velocity89.3
68
Hard-hit%44.4%
78
+34 vs proj
xBA0.338
73
xSLG0.569
72
xwOBA0.288
33
BB%7.3%
35
Bat speed72.0
80
K%31.7%
10
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.5 · 3B
94
Arm Strength82.5 · 3B
12
Outs Above Avg-6.0 · 3B
5
Range Runs-5.2 · 3B
13
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.7 · 3B
56
SB Success Rate66.7% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.3% · rebadged research
25
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.4% · rebadged research
46
Correct Decisions63.3% · rebadged research
23
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
26
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.247 · borderline
99
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.292 · insufficient sample
19
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.258 · validated thin sample
91
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.317 · insufficient sample
74
Resists FastballwOBA 0.394 · validated
4
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.370 · validated
25
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
125 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.003 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.040 |
| Sample | 303 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 319 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 11 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.290 | 0.220 to 0.326 | +/- 0.053 |
| ISO | 0.164 | 0.089 to 0.221 | +/- 0.066 |
| Barrel% | 5.1% | 1.9% to 8.0% | +/- 3.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.0% | 23.6% to 44.3% | +/- 10.4% |
| K% | 28.0% | 20.8% to 34.1% | +/- 6.6% |
| BB% | 6.2% | 3.0% to 8.8% | +/- 2.9% |
| BABIP | 0.308 | 0.224 to 0.361 | +/- 0.068 |
vs LHP
54 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.139 |
| K% | 14.3% |
| BB% | 3.6% |
| Barrel | 2.9% |
vs RHP
197 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.132 |
| K% | 15.7% |
| BB% | 2.6% |
| Barrel | 3.1% |