Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / STL · 2026
Jordan, Blaze
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team STL
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 24
Status IL-10
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
66
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.257 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.317 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.286 |
| Observed weight | 48% |
xwOBA
0.239
0.261
0.286
0.311
0.333
wOBA
0.254
0.273
0.295
0.317
0.336
ISO
0.062
0.087
0.115
0.143
0.168
K%
13.0%
16.6%
20.6%
24.6%
28.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.0%
88
+42 vs proj
Exit velocity88.3
54
Hard-hit%45.0%
80
+45 vs proj
xBA0.318
51
xSLG0.507
54
xwOBA0.317
67
+25 vs proj
BB%3.5%
5
-27 vs proj
Bat speed71.5
76
K%15.0%
89
+56 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength86.5 · 3B
46
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 3B
73
Range Runs1.2 · 3B
66
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.8 · 3B
13
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 56.9% · rebadged research
13
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.7% · rebadged research
20
Correct Decisions60.6% · rebadged research
9
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · borderline
36
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · insufficient sample
47
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.296 · validated thin sample
19
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.314 · insufficient sample
79
Resists FastballwOBA 0.326 · validated
73
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.352 · validated
63
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline89
10
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
66 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.022 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.000 |
| Sample | 200 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 200 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.295 | 0.110 to 0.271 | +/- 0.081 |
| ISO | 0.140 | 0.022 to 0.216 | +/- 0.097 |
| Barrel% | 4.5% | 0.2% to 6.8% | +/- 3.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 35.3% | 9.7% to 44.3% | +/- 17.3% |
| K% | 26.1% | 9.2% to 37.8% | +/- 14.3% |
| BB% | 6.9% | 1.0% to 9.3% | +/- 4.2% |
| BABIP | 0.290 | 0.136 to 0.366 | +/- 0.115 |
vs LHP
2 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.3% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
1 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.3% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |