Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / STL · 2026

None

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.295 xwOBA
Range
0.110 to 0.271
Live Δ
yes
Team STL Archetype Ground-ball contact Age 24 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
45
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
49
Defense1 metrics
43
Speed1 metrics
12
Plate skills10 metrics
41
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
xwOBA preseason0.257
xwOBA current pace0.291
xwOBA rolling p500.267
Observed weight28%
xwOBA
0.206 0.235 0.267 0.299 0.328
wOBA
0.198 0.227 0.259 0.291 0.320
ISO
0.031 0.065 0.102 0.140 0.173
K%
12.2% 17.1% 22.6% 28.0% 33.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.0%
65 +22 vs proj
Exit velocity88.4
53
Hard-hit%43.5%
69 +36 vs proj
xBA0.289
20
xSLG0.452
29
xwOBA0.291
33
BB%3.6%
7 -22 vs proj
Bat speed71.7
76
K%14.3%
88 +57 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
43
Range Runs0.4 · 3B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.6 · 3B
12
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-07-16
Avoids Bad ChasesST 55.9% · rebadged research
13
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.3% · rebadged research
22
Correct Decisions59.4% · rebadged research
8
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.297 · borderline
31
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · insufficient sample
54
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273 · validated thin sample
71
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · insufficient sample
57
Resists FastballwOBA 0.319 · validated
85
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.357 · validated
58
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline89
10
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Jordan, Blaze · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.291 2026-07-05: 0.2862026-07-06: 0.2862026-07-07: 0.2862026-07-08: 0.2852026-07-09: 0.2852026-07-10: 0.2902026-07-11: 0.2902026-07-12: 0.2952026-07-13: 0.2912026-07-14: 0.2912026-07-15: 0.2912026-07-16: 0.291 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

23 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Jordan, Blaze · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 13% of plotted batted ballsPull 13%Center field third: 78% of plotted batted ballsCenter 78%Right field third: 9% of plotted batted ballsOppo 9% LF 336 CF 400 RF 335 2026-03-15 · field out · ST · popup · EV 72.9 / LA 70.02026-06-15 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.9 / LA -28.02026-06-15 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 86.8 / LA -42.02026-06-15 · field out · CH · popup · EV 72.6 / LA 65.02026-06-18 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 90.3 / LA 51.02026-06-18 · double · ST · fly_ball · EV 101.3 / LA 23.02026-06-18 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 77.0 / LA 24.02026-06-18 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 58.8 / LA 34.02026-06-18 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 81.2 / LA 28.02026-06-22 · sac fly · CH · fly_ball · EV 102.3 / LA 27.02026-06-22 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 94.8 / LA 43.02026-06-22 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 86.0 / LA -36.02026-06-24 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 105.1 / LA 11.02026-06-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 71.1 / LA -5.02026-06-24 · sac fly · SL · fly_ball · EV 99.3 / LA 46.02026-06-24 · double · SV · line_drive · EV 103.0 / LA 7.02026-06-26 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 60.4 / LA -7.02026-06-26 · field out · ST · popup · EV 54.7 / LA 53.02026-06-30 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 82.0 / LA -7.02026-06-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.0 / LA 34.02026-06-30 · sac fly · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.7 / LA 23.02026-06-30 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 54.1 / LA 32.02026-07-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 88.3 / LA 1.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Jordan, Blaze · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 48%48%Chase: 34%34%Whiff: 19%19%Zone contact: 89%89%Contact: 81%81%Hard hit: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
hitter
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.004
wOBA Δ-0.036
Sample84 PA
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances200----
Home Runs6----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.2950.110 to 0.271+/- 0.081
ISO0.1400.022 to 0.216+/- 0.097
Barrel%4.6%0.2% to 6.8%+/- 3.3%
Hard-Hit%35.3%9.7% to 44.3%+/- 17.3%
K%26.1%9.3% to 37.8%+/- 14.3%
BB%6.9%1.0% to 9.3%+/- 4.2%
BABIP0.2900.136 to 0.366+/- 0.115
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

2 career PA

xwOBA0.001
K%0.3%
BB%0.0%
Barrel0.0%
vs RHP

1 career PA

xwOBA0.001
K%0.3%
BB%0.0%
Barrel0.0%