Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / LAD · 2026
Freeland, Alex
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team LAD
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
45
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.253 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.297 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.273 |
| Observed weight | 45% |
xwOBA
0.225
0.248
0.273
0.298
0.320
wOBA
0.299
0.321
0.345
0.369
0.391
ISO
0.059
0.084
0.112
0.139
0.164
K%
21.0%
24.1%
27.5%
30.9%
34.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.1%
50
Exit velocity87.9
44
Hard-hit%39.4%
49
xBA0.317
42
xSLG0.503
48
xwOBA0.297
38
BB%11.3%
76
+36 vs proj
Bat speed68.1
28
K%26.0%
29
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · 2B
50
Arm Strength87.2 · 2B
62
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 2B
91
Range Runs2.9 · 2B
84
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.0 · 2B
40
SB Success Rate100.0% · 2B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 75.7% · rebadged research
95
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.6% · rebadged research
45
Correct Decisions70.3% · rebadged research
86
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.287 · borderline
44
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · insufficient sample
71
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.272 · validated thin sample
67
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.334 · insufficient sample
44
Resists FastballwOBA 0.353 · validated
26
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.346 · validated
81
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110
90
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
89 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.012 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.060 |
| Sample | 177 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 248 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.285 | 0.158 to 0.314 | +/- 0.078 |
| ISO | 0.139 | 0.036 to 0.218 | +/- 0.091 |
| Barrel% | 4.5% | 1.0% to 6.0% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.8% | 20.6% to 44.3% | +/- 11.8% |
| K% | 28.9% | 17.3% to 39.6% | +/- 11.2% |
| BB% | 8.1% | 3.8% to 11.0% | +/- 3.6% |
| BABIP | 0.308 | 0.192 to 0.351 | +/- 0.079 |
vs LHP
16 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.071 |
| K% | 11.0% |
| BB% | 2.9% |
| Barrel | 0.9% |
vs RHP
84 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.076 |
| K% | 10.1% |
| BB% | 3.4% |
| Barrel | 1.3% |