Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / MIA · 2026
Pauley, Graham
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIA
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 26
Status Out / inactive
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.302 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.190 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.267 |
| Observed weight | 31% |
xwOBA
0.231
0.248
0.267
0.286
0.303
wOBA
0.195
0.221
0.250
0.279
0.305
ISO
0.119
0.140
0.164
0.188
0.209
K%
18.7%
20.9%
23.3%
25.8%
28.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%6.9%
28
-32 vs proj
Barrel%2.0%
14
-46 vs proj
Bat speed69.8
52
Exit velocity82.3
5
Hard-hit%17.4%
2
-46 vs proj
K%23.8%
38
xBA0.202
0
xSLG0.301
2
xwOBA0.190
1
-56 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 3B
71
Range Runs0.9 · 3B
63
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.4 · 3B
25
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.2% · rebadged research
59
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.5% · rebadged research
46
Correct Decisions65.3% · rebadged research
41
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.276 · borderline
72
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.275 · insufficient sample
57
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.264 · validated thin sample
82
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.317 · insufficient sample
87
Resists FastballwOBA 0.316 · validated
89
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.356 · validated
51
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
56
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
69 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.126 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.066 |
| Sample | 101 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 299 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.316 | 0.240 to 0.335 | +/- 0.047 |
| ISO | 0.189 | 0.108 to 0.234 | +/- 0.063 |
| Barrel% | 5.7% | 1.8% to 7.1% | +/- 2.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 39.6% | 28.4% to 47.4% | +/- 9.5% |
| K% | 24.5% | 16.5% to 29.0% | +/- 6.2% |
| BB% | 9.5% | 5.4% to 11.8% | +/- 3.2% |
| BABIP | 0.278 | 0.229 to 0.323 | +/- 0.047 |
vs LHP
30 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.136 |
| K% | 10.4% |
| BB% | 5.1% |
| Barrel | 1.8% |
vs RHP
196 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.141 |
| K% | 10.7% |
| BB% | 5.2% |
| Barrel | 2.1% |