Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / SD · 2026
Bowen, Jase
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team SD
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
49
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.265 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.248 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.259 |
| Observed weight | 34% |
xwOBA
0.189
0.222
0.259
0.296
0.330
wOBA
0.204
0.229
0.257
0.285
0.310
ISO
0.063
0.090
0.120
0.149
0.176
K%
19.1%
23.4%
28.2%
32.9%
37.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.2%
71
+35 vs proj
Exit velocity84.5
16
Hard-hit%38.7%
52
xBA0.342
76
xSLG0.568
71
xwOBA0.248
9
-26 vs proj
BB%2.7%
3
-32 vs proj
Bat speed67.5
26
K%39.3%
1
-28 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.4 · LF
81
Arm Strength94.0 · LF
54
Outs Above Avg1.0 · LF
80
Range Runs0.7 · LF
55
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts10.0 · RF
62
Sprint Speed29.6 · RF
96
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.1% · rebadged research
19
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.6% · rebadged research
21
Correct Decisions61.8% · rebadged research
14
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.290 · borderline
44
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · insufficient sample
71
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.281 · validated thin sample
43
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.335 · insufficient sample
26
Resists FastballwOBA 0.326 · validated
73
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.335 · validated
88
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline91
13
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
33 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.041 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.032 |
| Sample | 112 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 201 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.290 | 0.119 to 0.322 | +/- 0.102 |
| ISO | 0.137 | 0.057 to 0.219 | +/- 0.081 |
| Barrel% | 4.1% | 0.2% to 6.0% | +/- 2.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 35.6% | 11.3% to 40.4% | +/- 14.5% |
| K% | 26.6% | 8.5% to 35.2% | +/- 13.4% |
| BB% | 7.3% | 1.0% to 10.3% | +/- 4.6% |
| BABIP | 0.288 | 0.158 to 0.345 | +/- 0.094 |
vs LHP
1 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.5% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
4 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.5% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |