Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / COL · 2026
Beck, Jordan
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team COL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 25
Status IL-10
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.309 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.260 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.293 |
| Observed weight | 34% |
xwOBA
0.259
0.275
0.293
0.310
0.326
wOBA
0.276
0.303
0.333
0.363
0.390
ISO
0.112
0.135
0.159
0.184
0.206
K%
24.6%
26.4%
28.4%
30.3%
32.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%5.4%
15
-18 vs proj
Barrel%2.7%
21
-34 vs proj
Bat speed71.4
75
Exit velocity85.6
19
Hard-hit%29.7%
13
-37 vs proj
K%26.8%
28
xBA0.308
34
xSLG0.438
26
xwOBA0.260
13
-24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength91.3 · LF
38
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
45
Arm Runs-1.6 · LF
Limited
Range Runs-0.1 · LF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.2 · LF
75
SB Success Rate50.0% · LF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.0% · rebadged research
17
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.6% · rebadged research
85
Correct Decisions64.3% · rebadged research
33
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.284 · borderline
53
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.274 · insufficient sample
60
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271 · validated thin sample
68
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.325 · insufficient sample
74
Resists FastballwOBA 0.314 · validated
90
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351 · validated
68
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
37
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
75 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.037 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.036 |
| Sample | 112 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 528 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 15 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.297 | 0.263 to 0.349 | +/- 0.043 |
| ISO | 0.136 | 0.099 to 0.233 | +/- 0.067 |
| Barrel% | 5.5% | 3.7% to 8.1% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 40.1% | 31.8% to 45.3% | +/- 6.8% |
| K% | 28.1% | 24.1% to 34.0% | +/- 5.0% |
| BB% | 7.3% | 4.9% to 9.9% | +/- 2.5% |
| BABIP | 0.325 | 0.266 to 0.392 | +/- 0.063 |
vs LHP
205 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.241 |
| K% | 23.1% |
| BB% | 5.6% |
| Barrel | 5.7% |
vs RHP
608 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.224 |
| K% | 23.8% |
| BB% | 5.6% |
| Barrel | 4.2% |