Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / SF · 2026
Gilbert, Drew
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team SF
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.309 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.256 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.289 |
| Observed weight | 39% |
xwOBA
0.248
0.268
0.289
0.310
0.329
wOBA
0.313
0.337
0.365
0.392
0.417
ISO
0.126
0.148
0.174
0.199
0.222
K%
12.7%
15.1%
17.7%
20.4%
22.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%5.8%
18
-23 vs proj
Barrel%2.2%
15
-21 vs proj
Bat speed66.5
16
Exit velocity83.2
7
Hard-hit%31.7%
19
-20 vs proj
K%19.4%
65
xBA0.283
17
xSLG0.410
17
xwOBA0.256
9
-38 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · CF
56
Arm Strength92.4 · CF
53
Outs Above Avg1.0 · CF
80
Range Runs-1.1 · CF
36
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.0 · CF
42
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.8% · rebadged research
62
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.7% · rebadged research
25
Correct Decisions65.7% · rebadged research
45
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · borderline
56
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.266 · insufficient sample
85
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.287 · validated thin sample
21
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.317 · insufficient sample
87
Resists FastballwOBA 0.360 · validated
17
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.325 · validated
96
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
47
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
100 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.052 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.057 |
| Sample | 139 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 255 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 8 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.308 | 0.218 to 0.335 | +/- 0.058 |
| ISO | 0.159 | 0.106 to 0.255 | +/- 0.074 |
| Barrel% | 4.1% | 1.2% to 5.9% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.4% | 25.1% to 44.5% | +/- 9.7% |
| K% | 19.5% | 11.8% to 27.2% | +/- 7.7% |
| BB% | 8.2% | 2.4% to 10.6% | +/- 4.1% |
| BABIP | 0.283 | 0.200 to 0.321 | +/- 0.061 |
vs LHP
21 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.080 |
| K% | 6.4% |
| BB% | 1.9% |
| Barrel | 1.0% |
vs RHP
93 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.088 |
| K% | 5.5% |
| BB% | 2.2% |
| Barrel | 1.4% |