Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / STL · 2026
Scott II, Victor
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team STL
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.286 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.259 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.274 |
| Observed weight | 45% |
xwOBA
0.245
0.259
0.274
0.289
0.303
wOBA
0.248
0.269
0.291
0.314
0.335
ISO
0.072
0.089
0.108
0.126
0.143
K%
20.8%
22.3%
23.9%
25.5%
26.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%7.3%
33
Barrel%0.6%
3
-21 vs proj
Bat speed62.8
3
Exit velocity80.3
2
Hard-hit%28.2%
11
K%24.6%
36
xBA0.303
32
xSLG0.413
18
xwOBA0.259
12
-19 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.4 · CF
38
Arm Strength91.3 · CF
38
Outs Above Avg2.0 · CF
90
Range Runs2.4 · CF
79
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.6 · CF
64
Bolts25.0 · CF
92
SB Success Rate66.7% · CF
22
Sprint Speed29.7 · CF
98
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.7% · rebadged research
66
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.6% · rebadged research
36
Correct Decisions68.1% · rebadged research
69
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.261 · borderline
91
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.275 · insufficient sample
57
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.257 · validated thin sample
92
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.334 · insufficient sample
44
Resists FastballwOBA 0.322 · validated
82
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.345 · validated
78
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
58
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
117 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.030 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.002 |
| Sample | 179 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 456 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.289 | 0.255 to 0.333 | +/- 0.039 |
| ISO | 0.109 | 0.083 to 0.206 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% | 3.1% | 1.8% to 6.0% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 29.9% | 22.8% to 39.6% | +/- 8.4% |
| K% | 21.8% | 20.1% to 28.9% | +/- 4.4% |
| BB% | 8.0% | 4.9% to 11.7% | +/- 3.4% |
| BABIP | 0.278 | 0.242 to 0.323 | +/- 0.040 |
vs LHP
185 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.198 |
| K% | 18.8% |
| BB% | 5.6% |
| Barrel | 2.0% |
vs RHP
471 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.209 |
| K% | 16.4% |
| BB% | 6.6% |
| Barrel | 2.6% |