Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / LAD · 2026
Rushing, Dalton
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team LAD
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
73
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.270 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.361 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.307 |
| Observed weight | 41% |
xwOBA
0.258
0.281
0.307
0.333
0.357
wOBA
0.400
0.424
0.452
0.479
0.503
ISO
0.129
0.155
0.185
0.214
0.240
K%
23.4%
26.2%
29.2%
32.3%
35.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.0%
62
Exit velocity88.5
50
Hard-hit%42.7%
64
+16 vs proj
xBA0.376
92
xSLG0.640
84
xwOBA0.361
86
+50 vs proj
BB%12.6%
85
+55 vs proj
Bat speed70.7
67
K%25.8%
30
+25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.1 · C
55
Catcher Throwing0.8 · C
77
Framing Runs-3.1 · C
12
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · C
27
Pop Time1.9 · C
80
Range Runs-0.8 · C
40
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.5 · C
55
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.8% · rebadged research
36
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.3% · rebadged research
59
Correct Decisions65.8% · rebadged research
45
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.320 · borderline
6
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.321 · insufficient sample
1
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.284 · validated thin sample
31
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.326 · insufficient sample
70
Resists FastballwOBA 0.365 · validated
12
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360 · validated
46
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
41
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
73 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.067 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.157 |
| Sample | 151 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 278 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 8 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.294 | 0.191 to 0.343 | +/- 0.076 |
| ISO | 0.149 | 0.048 to 0.223 | +/- 0.088 |
| Barrel% | 6.0% | 2.5% to 8.2% | +/- 2.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 39.4% | 26.4% to 48.8% | +/- 11.2% |
| K% | 33.0% | 21.6% to 40.2% | +/- 9.3% |
| BB% | 7.1% | 3.3% to 9.6% | +/- 3.1% |
| BABIP | 0.297 | 0.210 to 0.393 | +/- 0.091 |
vs LHP
41 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.104 |
| K% | 14.6% |
| BB% | 2.4% |
| Barrel | 2.3% |
vs RHP
118 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.114 |
| K% | 14.2% |
| BB% | 2.6% |
| Barrel | 3.2% |