Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / STL · 2026
Pagés, Pedro
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team STL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.286 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.279 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.283 |
| Observed weight | 39% |
xwOBA
0.250
0.266
0.283
0.301
0.316
wOBA
0.242
0.265
0.291
0.317
0.340
ISO
0.110
0.129
0.150
0.172
0.191
K%
21.9%
23.5%
25.3%
27.2%
28.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%3.6%
6
Barrel%4.3%
39
Bat speed69.3
44
Exit velocity84.0
10
Hard-hit%35.7%
31
K%22.9%
45
xBA0.303
31
xSLG0.505
48
xwOBA0.279
23
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.5 · C
26
Catcher Throwing2.1 · C
93
Framing Runs2.5 · C
86
Pop Time1.9 · C
76
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.6 · C
13
SB Success Rate100.0% · C
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.1% · rebadged research
30
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.0% · rebadged research
32
Correct Decisions63.4% · rebadged research
23
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.291 · borderline
34
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.269 · insufficient sample
76
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.265 · validated thin sample
80
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.306 · insufficient sample
96
Resists FastballwOBA 0.318 · validated
87
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.377 · validated
12
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
22
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
99 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.005 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.007 |
| Sample | 140 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 424 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 13 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.284 | 0.236 to 0.325 | +/- 0.044 |
| ISO | 0.141 | 0.105 to 0.231 | +/- 0.063 |
| Barrel% | 4.3% | 2.3% to 6.7% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 38.3% | 31.1% to 46.5% | +/- 7.7% |
| K% | 22.0% | 21.9% to 31.6% | +/- 4.9% |
| BB% | 5.8% | 4.3% to 8.9% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.294 | 0.229 to 0.343 | +/- 0.057 |
vs LHP
202 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.192 |
| K% | 19.7% |
| BB% | 4.3% |
| Barrel | 3.1% |
vs RHP
448 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.187 |
| K% | 19.3% |
| BB% | 4.0% |
| Barrel | 3.1% |