Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / TB · 2026
Dunn, Oliver
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team TB
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.260 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.246 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.259 |
| Observed weight | 5% |
xwOBA
0.185
0.220
0.259
0.298
0.333
wOBA
0.211
0.300
0.400
0.500
0.589
ISO
0.042
0.081
0.123
0.165
0.204
K%
17.5%
21.0%
24.8%
28.7%
32.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · SS · small sample regression applied
57
Regression applied
Range Runs0.3 · SS
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.7% · rebadged research
85
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 50.0% · rebadged research
1
Correct Decisions57.7% · rebadged research
5
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · insufficient sample
65
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274 · validated thin sample
53
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · insufficient sample
54
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339 · validated
52
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.354 · validated
57
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline86
6
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No chart yet
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
47 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026, 2025). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 242 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.263 | 0.177 to 0.331 | +/- 0.077 |
| ISO | 0.128 | 0.036 to 0.204 | +/- 0.084 |
| Barrel% | 2.9% | 0.2% to 5.0% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.0% | 22.3% to 47.1% | +/- 12.4% |
| K% | 26.4% | 18.9% to 34.2% | +/- 7.6% |
| BB% | 6.7% | 2.5% to 9.4% | +/- 3.4% |
| BABIP | 0.316 | 0.195 to 0.384 | +/- 0.094 |
vs LHP
25 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.093 |
| K% | 13.9% |
| BB% | 2.3% |
| Barrel | 0.5% |
vs RHP
156 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.101 |
| K% | 13.4% |
| BB% | 2.7% |
| Barrel | 0.6% |