Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / KC · 2026
Tolbert, Tyler
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team KC
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.286 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.172 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.278 |
| Observed weight | 7% |
xwOBA
0.213
0.244
0.278
0.312
0.342
wOBA
0.381
0.454
0.536
0.617
0.691
ISO
0.023
0.060
0.101
0.142
0.179
K%
13.8%
17.7%
22.0%
26.3%
30.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · LF
Limited
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF · small sample regression applied
62
Regression applied
Range Runs0.2 · LF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 77.8% · rebadged research
97
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 0.0% · rebadged research
100
Correct Decisions89.5% · rebadged research
100
Mithrandir Stuff+52
2
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.285 · borderline
51
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.337 · insufficient sample
38
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339 · validated
52
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351 · validated
66
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline130
100
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No chart yet
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
11 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 236 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.299 | 0.175 to 0.312 | +/- 0.069 |
| ISO | 0.130 | 0.047 to 0.216 | +/- 0.084 |
| Barrel% | 3.2% | 0.2% to 5.6% | +/- 2.7% |
| Hard-Hit% | 34.0% | 17.3% to 42.7% | +/- 12.7% |
| K% | 23.4% | 11.4% to 28.9% | +/- 8.7% |
| BB% | 5.4% | 1.2% to 9.1% | +/- 3.9% |
| BABIP | 0.295 | 0.223 to 0.371 | +/- 0.074 |
vs LHP
42 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.070 |
| K% | 5.4% |
| BB% | 1.1% |
| Barrel | 0.4% |
vs RHP
52 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.067 |
| K% | 6.2% |
| BB% | 0.9% |
| Barrel | 0.3% |