Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / CIN · 2026
Brito, Juan
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team CIN
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
40
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.239 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.297 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.259 |
| Observed weight | 35% |
xwOBA
0.199
0.228
0.259
0.291
0.319
wOBA
0.270
0.297
0.326
0.355
0.382
ISO
0.047
0.082
0.120
0.159
0.193
K%
12.6%
16.5%
20.8%
25.1%
29.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.3%
42
+18 vs proj
Exit velocity85.5
24
Hard-hit%32.5%
25
xBA0.323
56
xSLG0.500
51
xwOBA0.297
44
BB%6.0%
23
Bat speed68.0
30
K%24.1%
44
-31 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · 2B
14
Arm Strength83.4 · 2B
19
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 2B
27
Range Runs-1.6 · 2B
37
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.2 · 2B
44
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.8% · rebadged research
42
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.0% · rebadged research
30
Correct Decisions65.2% · rebadged research
40
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.281 · borderline
69
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.282 · insufficient sample
41
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.264 · validated thin sample
86
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.316 · insufficient sample
74
Resists FastballwOBA 0.387 · validated
5
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.344 · validated
79
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
33
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
68 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.005 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.035 |
| Sample | 116 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 205 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.291 | 0.095 to 0.268 | +/- 0.087 |
| ISO | 0.130 | 0.018 to 0.237 | +/- 0.109 |
| Barrel% | 3.0% | 0.2% to 6.5% | +/- 3.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 32.6% | 9.8% to 42.4% | +/- 16.3% |
| K% | 18.3% | 6.6% to 31.2% | +/- 12.3% |
| BB% | 6.5% | 1.3% to 9.1% | +/- 3.9% |
| BABIP | 0.303 | 0.156 to 0.368 | +/- 0.106 |
vs LHP
3 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.1% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.3% |
vs RHP
8 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.1% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.4% |