Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.292 vs 0.245 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / DET · 2026
Carpenter, Kerry
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team DET
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
72
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.337 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.306 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.320 |
| Observed weight | 54% |
xwOBA
0.296
0.307
0.320
0.333
0.344
wOBA
0.315
0.333
0.353
0.374
0.392
ISO
0.186
0.203
0.222
0.242
0.259
K%
24.0%
25.4%
26.9%
28.5%
29.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.3%
68
-17 vs proj
Exit velocity90.7
82
Hard-hit%49.3%
89
xBA0.329
59
xSLG0.632
84
xwOBA0.306
48
-35 vs proj
BB%7.8%
40
Bat speed70.0
55
K%30.6%
15
-27 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.5 · RF
37
Arm Strength92.0 · RF
43
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · RF
22
Range Runs-6.1 · RF
3
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.8 · RF
34
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.2% · rebadged research
25
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.1% · rebadged research
70
Correct Decisions61.6% · rebadged research
13
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.271 · borderline
83
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.260 · insufficient sample
94
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.335 · validated thin sample
0
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.341 · insufficient sample
26
Resists FastballwOBA 0.358 · validated
18
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.355 · validated
64
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
34
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
99 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.042 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.006 |
| Sample | 255 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 499 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 24 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.348 | 0.319 to 0.379 | +/- 0.030 |
| ISO | 0.206 | 0.155 to 0.294 | +/- 0.069 |
| Barrel% | 8.1% | 5.7% to 9.9% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 45.6% | 42.1% to 50.4% | +/- 4.1% |
| K% | 23.7% | 19.5% to 29.0% | +/- 4.8% |
| BB% | 7.0% | 4.9% to 9.3% | +/- 2.2% |
| BABIP | 0.303 | 0.255 to 0.346 | +/- 0.045 |
vs LHP
218 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.245 |
| K% | 20.6% |
| BB% | 5.0% |
| Barrel | 4.2% |
vs RHP
1256 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.292 |
| K% | 19.4% |
| BB% | 5.0% |
| Barrel | 7.7% |