Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.292 vs 0.245 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / DET · 2026
Carpenter, Kerry
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team DET
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.337 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.297 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.321 |
| Observed weight | 39% |
xwOBA
0.295
0.307
0.321
0.335
0.348
wOBA
0.321
0.346
0.373
0.400
0.425
ISO
0.170
0.192
0.216
0.240
0.261
K%
23.2%
24.9%
26.7%
28.6%
30.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.1%
53
+25 vs proj
Barrel%5.6%
57
-26 vs proj
Bat speed70.5
65
Exit velocity91.8
90
Hard-hit%50.0%
90
+16 vs proj
K%32.9%
4
-34 vs proj
xBA0.337
63
xSLG0.652
85
xwOBA0.297
39
-40 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength84.2 · RF
3
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · RF
20
Arm Runs-0.6 · RF
Limited
Range Runs-3.6 · RF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.7 · RF
33
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.1% · rebadged research
30
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.3% · rebadged research
81
Correct Decisions61.8% · rebadged research
14
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.261 · borderline
92
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · insufficient sample
88
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.332 · validated thin sample
0
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.331 · insufficient sample
51
Resists FastballwOBA 0.353 · validated
29
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.348 · validated
73
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
46
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
79 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.050 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.025 |
| Sample | 143 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 499 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 24 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.348 | 0.319 to 0.379 | +/- 0.030 |
| ISO | 0.206 | 0.155 to 0.294 | +/- 0.069 |
| Barrel% | 8.1% | 5.7% to 9.9% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 45.6% | 42.1% to 50.4% | +/- 4.1% |
| K% | 23.7% | 19.5% to 29.0% | +/- 4.8% |
| BB% | 7.0% | 4.9% to 9.3% | +/- 2.2% |
| BABIP | 0.303 | 0.255 to 0.346 | +/- 0.045 |
vs LHP
218 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.245 |
| K% | 20.6% |
| BB% | 5.0% |
| Barrel | 4.2% |
vs RHP
1256 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.292 |
| K% | 19.4% |
| BB% | 5.0% |
| Barrel | 7.7% |