Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / LAA · 2026
O'Hoppe, Logan
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team LAA
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.311 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.287 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.301 |
| Observed weight | 40% |
xwOBA
0.273
0.286
0.301
0.316
0.329
wOBA
0.251
0.273
0.299
0.324
0.347
ISO
0.101
0.118
0.137
0.155
0.172
K%
21.5%
23.3%
25.2%
27.2%
28.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%10.8%
72
+50 vs proj
Barrel%6.8%
72
Bat speed69.6
49
Exit velocity86.3
25
Hard-hit%36.5%
35
-38 vs proj
K%22.3%
48
+20 vs proj
xBA0.262
8
xSLG0.450
31
xwOBA0.287
28
-23 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-1.9 · C
3
Catcher Throwing0.6 · C
66
Framing Runs-5.2 · C
2
Pop Time2.0 · C
23
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.9 · C
39
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.0% · rebadged research
29
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.2% · rebadged research
60
Correct Decisions62.8% · rebadged research
19
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.271 · borderline
81
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.294 · insufficient sample
13
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.261 · validated thin sample
87
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.320 · insufficient sample
83
Resists FastballwOBA 0.336 · validated
56
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351 · validated
64
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
33
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
93 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.023 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.011 |
| Sample | 148 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 491 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 20 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.310 | 0.292 to 0.361 | +/- 0.034 |
| ISO | 0.165 | 0.116 to 0.227 | +/- 0.056 |
| Barrel% | 7.2% | 4.7% to 9.9% | +/- 2.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 45.6% | 40.1% to 53.6% | +/- 6.8% |
| K% | 26.7% | 22.4% to 33.3% | +/- 5.5% |
| BB% | 6.3% | 4.1% to 9.6% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.284 | 0.228 to 0.323 | +/- 0.048 |
vs LHP
263 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.274 |
| K% | 21.9% |
| BB% | 7.0% |
| Barrel | 6.3% |
vs RHP
994 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.252 |
| K% | 24.1% |
| BB% | 4.4% |
| Barrel | 6.2% |